What is Angola's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Angola’s LULUCF sector was the largest source of GHG emissions (70%) in 2015 at 70 MtCO₂e/yr. The main driver was a net loss of 200,000 hectares of forest from 2003 to 2018.1 The energy sector was the next largest source (18% of total) and is dominated by fugitive emissions (producing 61% of energy sector emissions) from the inefficient oil production industry which is also the backbone of the Angolan economy. Energy sector emissions from transport and power production lagged far behind those from fugitive emissions.
Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the agricultural sector – mostly from enteric fermentation by livestock and manure left on pastures – produced 7% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while waste disposal at unmanaged sites accounted for another 3% of total GHG emissions.
Angola's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
-
Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Angola's Updated 2021 NDC, IEA CO2 2019 for combustion sectors and PRIMAP 2019 for gases breakdown
Data References
-
Energy system
Although Angola’s economy is highly dependent on the extraction of oil as Africa’s second largest producer, renewable energy (biomass, hydro and waste) provided 58% of the country’s total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2020; the remainder was supplied by oil (34%) and fossil gas (8%). Low levels of rural electrification, a widely dispersed population and poverty all contribute to the widespread use of biomass for daily energy needs thus driving emissions from land use change.
The energy mix has changed noticeably since 1990 when 73% of energy was produced from biomass, 18% from oil and 7% from fossil gas.2 Between 2010-2020, Angola increased its power generation capacity from 1.3 GW to 5.6 GW by increasing generation from thermoelectric (fossil gas and diesel) and hydropower sources.3 Even so, in 2021 only 47% of the population had access to electricity and the percentage of renewables in the energy mix was 64%.4
In order to achieve the targets in the Angola’s Vision 2025 (2008), several plans and strategies have been developed, including the National Energy Security Policy and Strategy (2011), and the Atlas and National Strategy for New Renewable Energies (2018). The country’s hydropower potential is vast (estimated at 18.2 GW), underutilised (as of 2022, only 20% was exploited), and key to the government’s energy access and security agenda.5
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Unconditional target:
- A reduction of at least 14% by 2025 relative to business-as-usual (BAU), as projected from 2015 emission levels (incl. LULUCF); equivalent to an estimated mitigation reduction of 15.4 MtCO₂e in 2025.6
Conditional target:
- An additional 10% below BAU by 2025 (incl. LULUCF), estimated mitigation level of 11.1 MtCO₂e.7
- The combined unconditional and conditional contribution is therefore a 24% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to BAU scenario in 2025; this is equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of up to 26.5 million tCO₂e in 2025.8
- This translates to a reduction in 2025 of 19% relative to 2015 levels, or an estimated emissions level of 83 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF) in 2025.
Market mechanisms
Angola is seeking to mobilise USD 11.706 billion to fund its conditional interventions, over 99% of which are for mitigation measures.
The country will adopt appropriate carbon pricing measures, including the operationalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and the use of other international carbon market instruments.9
Long-term target
Angola has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC. A net zero target is under discussion.10
Sectoral targets
Power
Target to install 3,108 MW of renewable energy (hydropower, biomass, mini-hydro, wind, and small- and large-scale solar PV), which together have the potential to provide a reduction of approximately 12.5 MtCO₂e (or 47% of the overall conditional emission reduction target) by 2025.
Industry
Target to cut fugitive emissions from flaring, reducing emissions by 8.4 MtCO₂e by 2025. This is conditional on international support (~32% of the overall conditional emissions reduction target).
Transport
Conditional on international support, Angola set the target of deploying 2,000 natural gas buses, with an estimated reduction in emissions of 6.6ktCO₂e (less than 0.1% of the conditional target).
LULUCF
Reforestation target which aims to reduce emissions by 1.5 MtCO₂e (~6%), conditional on international support by 2025.
Waste
Composting municipal solid waste (MSW) to reduce 2025 emissions by 4 MtCO₂e (~16%), conditional on international support.