Morocco

Last update: 1 June 2022

Economy wide

Under 1.5°C compatible cost-effective pathways, Morocco’s domestic emissions reduce to 0-21% below 2010 levels (or 60-76 MtCO₂e) by 2030 excluding LULUCF. Morocco’s NDC target would therefore fall within the upper limit of a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

Morocco's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

Submitted in 2021, Morocco’s updated NDC has an emissions reduction goal of 45.5% below BAU by 2030, which translates, when excluding LULUCF, to a 1% emissions reduction below 2010 levels by 2030. The overall target includes an unconditional component of 18.3% below BAU by 2030.¹

Current policy projection

However, current policy projections suggest that Morocco’s emissions will reach between 75-115 MtCO₂e by 2030. While the lower bound of these projections is close to reaching the conditional NDC target, the higher bound falls far short of being on a Paris Agreement compatible pathway.

Long-term strategy

Morocco submitted its 2050 long-term strategy to the UNFCCC in December 2021. While it does not include a quantified emissions reduction target by 2050, the strategy aims, among others, at increasing up to 80% the renewable energy share in the power sector by 2050 and electrifying end-use sectors. The strategy states the goal to reach ‘carbon neutrality during this century’.

2050 Ambition

By 2050, Morocco would need to reduce its emissions to between 29-38 MtCO₂e per year to be compatible with 1.5°C global least-cost pathways. This is equivalent to a 50-62% reduction in emissions relative to 2010 levels. On the road towards net zero, Morocco will need to balance its remaining emissions through the development of carbon dioxide removal approaches, or by implementing stringent policies to enhance the role of the LULUCF sector as a carbon sink and source of negative emissions.²

Sectors

Power

Morocco’s NDC includes a target to reach 52% of renewable installed capacities in the power sector by 2030.
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Morocco would need to reduce its share of fossil fuels from 81% in 2019 to between 2-9% in 2030. Coal would need to be fully phased out of the national power mix by 2030, and natural gas would need to be phased out between 2028-2034. This will drive the full decarbonisation of the power sector by 2035-2038.
This stands in contrast with the country’s NDC target of installing at least 450 MW of imported natural gas capacity by 2030.³ Morocco’s National Climate Plan also explicitly articulates intentions to increase imports of LPG for industrial use, and to enhance the use of natural gas in the industry sector by 2030.⁴ Morocco would then be at risk of being stuck with stranded, carbon-intensive assets with high upfront investment.

Buildings

Buildings account for 9% of Morocco’s total GHG emissions in 2018. The government anticipates energy consumption to increase due to population growth and utilisation of air conditioning and heating systems across the country.⁵
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Morocco would need to reduce the direct annual CO₂ emissions from the buildings sector from 8 MtCO₂ in 2019 to 0 MtCO₂ between 2039-2056. This can be achieved through a rapid increase in the electrification rate of the sector. The share of electricity would need to rise from 27% in 2019 to 41-50% in 2030, and 82-85% by 2050 .⁶

Industry

The industry sector accounted for 10% of the country’s total GHG emissions in 2018. While Morocco has set mitigation targets for this sector, one of the interventions involves the utilisation of 500 million m³ of natural gas between 2021 and 2023 to replace fuel in thermal processes. Increasing the use of natural gas stands in contrasts with what would be required in a 1.5°C compatible pathway.⁷
To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Morocco’s industry sector would need to decarbonise between 2048-2054, with direct CO₂ emissions reducing from 8 MtCO₂/year in 2019 to 3 MtCO₂ in 2040, and 0-2 MtCO₂ by 2050.
The collective share of electricity, biomass, and hydrogen in the sector’s energy supply would need to increase from 34% in 2019 to 52-62% in 2040, and 73-85% by 2050.

Transport

The transport sector has the highest share of total final consumption of energy in Morocco (around 37% in 2019) and is powered almost exclusively by imported oil.
To maintain alignment with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Morocco needs to reduce the direct annual CO₂ emissions from the transport sector from 19 MtCO₂ in 2019 to between 9-10 MtCO₂ in 2030, and fully decarbonise the sector by 2049-2062.
This can be achieved through a rapid electrification of the sector with the share of electricity rising from 1% in 2019, to 5-45% in 2030, and 40-91% by 2050.⁸
The adoption of electric-powered vehicles and enhanced public transit options are key avenues through which the necessary decarbonisation may be achieved.

Ministère de l’Energie, des M. et de l’Environnement, D. de l’Environnement. Contribution Déterminée au Niveau National - Actualisée. (2021). ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩
Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau portable. Production de l’Electricité. Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau portable.. ↩
Chargé de l’Environnement. Plan Climat National à horizon 2030. (2020). ↩
Département du Développement Durable. 3ème Rapport Biennal Actualisé du Maroc dans le cadre de la CCNUCC. (2022). ↩
It should be noted, however, that an increased share of electricity can only facilitate the decarbonisation of the building sector if the electricity is sourced from renewable energies. The “Power” section of this profile elaborates on the pathways for decarbonisation of Morocco’s power sector. ↩
Département du Développement Durable. 3ème Rapport Biennal Actualisé du Maroc dans le cadre de la CCNUCC. (2022). ↩
It should be noted, however, that an increased share of electricity can only facilitate the decarbonisation of the building sector if the electricity is sourced from renewable energies. The “Power” section of this profile elaborates on the pathways for decarbonisation of Morocco’s power sector. ↩

What is Morocco's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?