Peru

Last update: 1 September 2021

Economy wide

1.5°C compatible emissions pathways would require Peru to reduce its emissions by 21–40% below 2015 levels or to emissions levels of 61–81 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF.¹

Peru's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

Peru’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets a target to limit emissions to 179 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 including LULUCF. It translates to absolute emissions levels of 108 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF, or a 15% emissions increase above 2015 levels.²^,³ Updated in 2020, the target is conditional on the country receiving international support.

Fair share

It is feasible for Peru to reduce its emissions in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway if the country receives adequate international support. The support can help close the gap between Peru’s fair share and the 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.

Net zero GHG

Peru has announced its intent to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050,⁴ but the government is still drafting the strategy on how to get there.⁵

Remaining emissions

When excluding LULUCF emissions, Peru‘s GHG emissions by 2050 should not exceed around 35 MtCO₂e/yr. The amount equals to emissions reductions of at least 83% below 2015 levels. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches.⁶

Land-use and forestry

Given its high share of LULUCF emissions, Peru will need to implement stringent policies to halt deforestation, to reduce LULUCF emissions and allow the land sector to become a larger carbon sink.

Sectors

Power

In 2019, around 60% of Peru’s electricity was generated from renewables – mainly from hydropower. Solar and wind had only about a 4% share, while fossil gas accounted for approximately 38%.⁷ 1.5°C compatible pathways show that gas needs to be phased out from the power sector between 2033 and 2035.
Peru aims to achieve a 15% share of non-hydro renewables such as solar and wind in the power sector by 2030.⁸^–⁹ In 1.5°C pathways, total renewables reach over 90% by this time.
Peru’s power sector could be fully decarbonised by the mid-2030s to be aligned with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. However, international support will be needed to achieve this goal in such an ambitious time frame.

Buildings

The share of electricity in the building sector energy mix was over 30% in 2019, with biomass and oil and gas covering the rest.
The analysed 1.5°C pathways show that the sector could be decarbonised between 2030 and 2043, with the share of electricity doubling by 2030 from 2019 values and reaching close to 90% in 2050.
Current measures, such as the technical code for sustainable construction, promoting energy efficiency and appliance labelling programmes, are unlikely to be sufficient to drive the necessary emission reductions in the sector.

Industry

The industry sector’s emissions come mainly from the construction sector, particularly the mineral industry and cement and lime production.¹⁰
The share of electricity in 2019 was around 40%. Under a 1.5°C compatible pathway, it would need to increase to around 53% by 2030 and 80% in 2050. The sector could then reach full decarbonisation between 2035 and 2037. Achieving these goals in such an ambitious timeframe will require considerable international support.

Transport

With a 9% share, the transport sector is the largest individual source of energy sector emissions.
Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, Peru could reduce direct CO₂ emissions from transport by between 20% to 32% below 2019 levels by 2030.
Electric vehicle (EV) sales in Peru are still very low, but the government has implemented measures to incentivise emissions reductions, such as a decree to promote the purchase of EVs and hybrids through low taxes and parking benefits.¹¹

To exclude LULUCF emissions, it was assumed that the percentage of share of mitigation effort in the LULUCF sector is the same as described in the first NDC and this value is subtracted from the absolute value. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Peru. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Peru: Country Summary. (2020). ↩
Ministerio de Ambiente de Peru. Estiman que reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero beneficiará al país en 98 mil millones de dólares al 2050. Press Release, Ministerio de Ambiente (2020). ↩
Gobierno del Peru. Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional del Perú. Reporte de actualización periodo 2021-2030. 29 (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
International Energy Agency. Peru: Electricity generation by source. (2020). ↩
Ministerio de Energía y Minas Peru. Minem: al cierre del último año se ejecutaron 49 proyectos de energías renovables en el Perú. (2021). ↩
Andina Staff. 15% of Peru’s energy matrix in 2030 to be generated from renewable sources. Andina: Agencia Peruana de Noticias (2018). ↩
Ministry of the Environment. Peru. Inventario Nacional de Gases de Efecto Invernadero del Año 2016 y Actualización de las Estimaciones de los Años 2000, 2005, 2010, 2012 y 2014. (2021). ↩
Guglielmetti, F. Por decreto Perú facilita ingreso de vehículos eléctricos, híbridos y de hidrógeno verde. Portal movilidad (2022). ↩

What is Peru's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?