What is Peru's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Renewable energy sources already make up 60% of Peru’s power generation. Roughly 55% comes from hydropower and the remaining 4% from solar and wind (2019).1 The government aims to increase the share of solar and wind in the power generation to 15% by 2030. 1.5°C compatible pathways would require the renewable energy share to be around 95-98% by 2030. There is room for improvement in Peru’s power sector targets. However, it is very likely that the country would require significant international support to achieve this outcome.
1.5°C compatible pathways would require gas to be phased out from the power sector between 2033 and 2035. However, Peru continues to expand the use of fossil gas in the power and other sectors through, for example, the relaunch in January 2023 of the construction of the gas pipeline in the south of Peru.
Peru's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
On a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Peru’s power sector reaches full decarbonisation by the mid-2030s. Decarbonisation is made possible by a gas phase-out in the early 2030s.
Renewable energy made up 60% of Peru’s power generation in 2019. Ramping up renewable energy such as solar and wind will be the key driver of the power sector decarbonisation. It will also reduce the reliance on carbon dioxide removal approaches. For 1.5°C pathways, Peru would need to reach 100% renewable power production by 2035. Such a rapid scaling up of renewables and phasing out of fossil fuels will require considerable international support.
Peru's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Peru to be on the order of USD 2 to 5 billion by 2030 and 4 to 12 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Peru's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Peru
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
201
|
6 to
22
|
0 to
1
|
-5 to
0
|
2031 to
2035
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-97 to
-89%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-102 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
38
|
2 to
5
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2033 to
2035
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
60
|
95 to
98
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
40
|
2 to
5
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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