What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Brazil
Brazil’s land-use sector could turn from source to sink by 2030
Brazil’s LULUCF sector has historically acted as a net carbon source, with emissions peaking between 2003-2007 from high deforestation rates. In 2022, LULUCF represented almost 40% of total Brazilian emissions. In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the LULUCF sector remains a net source until 2030, when it shifts to a net sink driven by around 50% reduction in gross emissions below 2020 levels and a 25% increase in its gross sink.
Brazil's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Power sector emissions projected to increase
Brazil’s electricity is predominantly generated from renewables. Under existing policies, however, the Brazilian government projects an increase in power sector emissions due to rising energy demand and increasing fossil fuel generation. While plans to scale up both distributed and centralised renewables are promising, planned expansion of Brazil’s oil and gas sector threatens to undercut power sector emissions reductions and compatibility with 1.5°C pathways.
Electrification and renewables as key levers to decarbonise transport
In all 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed, oil in the transport sector is essentially phased out by 2050 by the uptake of electric vehicles and biofuels. The Deep Electrification pathway avoids increased reliance on biofuels in transport through higher electrification rates. To meet the electricity demand in this pathway, average investment in renewable energy capacity would reach USD 18.5 bn annually from 2026 until 2030, USD 15.4 bn annually from 2031–2040, and 11.4 bn annually from 2041–2050.