What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Brazil
2035 target not 1.5°C compatible
Brazil’s 2024 NDC for 2035 aims to cut emissions by 57-66% below 2005 levels including LULUCF (in AR4 GWPs). This is not aligned with 1.5°C consistent pathways, which would require net emissions to fall by at least 85% by 2035. Due to limited information on Brazil’s expected use of the land sector to reach its target, it remains highly uncertain how much Brazil aims to cut emissions in other sectors.
Factsheet on Brazil's 1.5ºC aligned emission levels for 2030 and 2035 can be accessed here.
Brazil's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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Power sector emissions projected to increase
While Brazil’s electricity fuel mix is predominantly renewables, under existing policies, the Brazilian government projects power sector emissions will increase due to increasing energy demand and an increasing use of fossil fuel electricity. While plans to scale up both distributed and centralised renewables are promising, planned expansion of Brazil’s oil and gas sector threatens to undercut power sector emissions reductions and compatibility with 1.5°C pathways.
Renewables and electrification are key levers to decarbonisation
In all 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed, oil in the transport sector is essentially phased out by 2050 by the uptake of electric vehicles and biofuels. The Deep Electrification pathway avoids increased reliance on biofuels in transport through higher electrification rates. To meet the electricity demand in this pathway, average investment in renewable energy capacity would reach USD 18.5 bn annually from 2026 until 2030, USD 15.4 bn annually from 2031 until 2040, and 11.4 bn annually from 2041 until 2050.