What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Brazil
NDC update an improvement but still not 1.5°C aligned
Brazil’s 2023 updated NDC improved the clarity of the mitigation target for 2030. Excluding LULUCF, it would cut emissions to 884 MtCO2e by 2030, or 23% below 2015 levels. This is not yet aligned with 1.5°C consistent pathways, which would require emissions to fall to 801 MtCO2e/yr, or 31% below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.
Brazil's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Power sector emissions projected to increase
Under existing policies, the Brazilian government projects power sector emissions will increase moderately. While plans to scale up both distributed and centralised renewables are promising, planned expansion of Brazil’s oil and gas sector threatens to undercut power sector emissions reductions and compatibility with 1.5°C pathways.
Electrification key to decarbonising transport
The transport sector is the largest source of energy emissions in Brazil due to the dominance of oil. In all 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed, oil in the transport sector is essentially phased out by 2050 driven to varying by the uptake of electricity and biofuels. Brazil’s policies support high levels of biofuel use, however there are significant sustainability concerns around biofuels including increased deforestation and higher lifetime emissions compared to electric vehicles.