What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Brazil’s 2023 updated NDC aims to reach net GHG emissions of 1200 MtCO2e/yr including land sector emissions.1 This is equivalent to 884 MtCO2e/yr, or 23% below 2015 levels when LULUCF is excluded, however this heavily depends on the extent to which Brazil relies on the sector to achieve its NDC. The 2023 NDC update improved the clarity of the target from the previous submission, although it is still not aligned with 1.5°C consistent pathways, which would require emissions to fall to 801 MtCO2e/yr, or 31% below 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF).
However, Brazil is not on track to meet its emissions targets. Under current policies, emissions are set to increase by 1-2% from 2015 levels in 2030, reaching 1162-1180 MtCO2e/yr excluding LULUCF. Brazil would need to introduce additional policies or strengthen existing policies to reach its 2030 NDC target – with even more required to meet 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Despite updated NDC targets, the government continues with double-edged policies, introducing new initiatives to slow deforestation while also planning significant subsidies for new oil and gas development.2
With international support, Brazil would be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level.3
Brazil's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Brazil’s 2023 NDC includes a long-term objective to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, although whether it covers all GHGs or just CO2 emissions is unclear. In 1.5°C compatible pathways, Brazil’s emissions (excluding LULUCF) reach 442 MtCO2e/yr, or 62% below 2015 levels by 2050.
Whether or not Brazil’s net zero target is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways depends on how much it relies on emissions removals and what type of removals these are. Removals could either be land-based carbon removal (e.g., reforestation, forest restoration) or through novel carbon removal technologies. Recent projections suggest that Brazil could reach net removals from LULUCF of about -700 MtCO2e/yr by 2050.4 Assuming Brazil achieves these net removals and zero deforestation by 2030, Brazil’s net zero target would translate to GHG emissions of roughly 700 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF in 2050, which is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Given the high vulnerability of carbon sinks to deforestation, natural disturbances such as fires and competition for land, Brazil would need to make deeper emissions cuts in other sectors such as energy to avoid relying on land-based sinks to meet its target.
Brazil's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Brazil. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
1155
|
1183
|
658 to
801
|
478 to
707
|
351 to
611
|
260 to
442
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-43 to
-31%
|
-59 to
-39%
|
-70 to
-47%
|
-77 to
-62%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
460
|
410
|
55 to
168
|
-35 to
112
|
-79 to
48
|
-177 to
-62
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-88 to
-63%
|
-108 to
-76%
|
-117 to
-90%
|
-138 to
-113%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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