What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Brazil’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 reached 1650 MtCO2e (including LULUCF) and are projected to grow without enhanced decarbonisation policies.1,2 Direct emissions from agriculture is the largest emitting sector, accounting for 36% of total GHG emissions in 2022,3 followed by LULUCF (30%,) energy (25%), waste (5%) and industrial processes (5%).
Agriculture and deforestation are key drivers of emissions in Brazil, in addition to the energy sector. Agricultural emissions increased by 53% between 1990 and 2022, primarily due to enteric fermentation and managed soil.4 Accelerated deforestation has led to a dramatic increase in emissions from the land sector, which had been declining between 2003-2010.
Whilst energy sector emissions peaked in 2014, they have rebounded slightly in 2021 and 2022.5 The government projects that energy emissions will rise in the next decade under existing policies and could surpass the 2014 peak.6 This is in part due to the planned expansion of gas-powered electricity generation.7 Energy-related emissions from the transport, buildings, and industry sectors are all projected to increase over the next five to ten years.
Brazil's 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Brazil’s primary energy mix has a relatively large share of renewables (43% in 2022), primarily from biomass (29%) and hydro (11%) along with a small but growing share of solar and wind (3%).8
Renewables make up a larger share of generation in the power sector, at 88% in 2022, driven primarily by hydro. Fossil gas, coal, nuclear power and oil make up the remaining 12% of generation.9 The Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan projects that under current policy, renewables will make up 48% of primary energy and 84% of electricity generation by 2031, with a large growth in distributed solar and biomass power generation and approximately a doubling of centralised solar generation.10
However, the plan also includes a doubling of oil production and an increase in natural gas production. The government’s New Gas Market programme aims to lower gas prices by expanding the Brazilian natural gas market, with the government looking to double gas power generation by 2031, to make up 14% of primary energy.11 Expanding fossil generation as planned would slow down Brazil’s power sector decarbonisation.
Economy-Wide Targets
Target in 2023 NDC:
- As expressed by the country:
2025 net GHG emissions limit of 1.32 GtCO2e (48.4% reduction below 2005 levels)12
2030 net GHG emissions limit of 1.20 GtCO2e (53.1% reduction below 2005 levels)13
- When excluding LULUCF, Brazil’s target translates to:
7% below 2005 levels or 884 MtCO2e by 203014
Sector Coverage:
- Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF
Long-term target:
- As formulated by the country:
Climate neutral by 205015
Brazil has not submitted a Long Term Strategy to the UNFCCC, but reiterated the 2050 objective in its last NDC update in October 2023.16