What is Ecuador's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ecuador
Economy wide
To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, Ecuador would need to reduce emissions by 24% compared to 2015 levels by 2025, equivalent to absolute emissions of 49 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF. By 2030, Ecuador would need to reduce emissions by 46% by 2030 compared to 2015 levels, equivalent to absolute emissions of 37 MtCO₂e. Ecuador will need international support to decarbonise in line with the assessed 1.5°C pathways.
Ecuador's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Conditional NDC
Ecuador’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets an emissions reduction target of 20.9% by 2025 compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Such reduction would lead to an emissions level of 63 MtCO₂e in 2025 (excl. LULUCF).1 This is equivalent to an emissions reduction of around 8% compared to 2015 levels. This target is conditional on international support.
2050 Ambition
On a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Ecuador’s GHG emissions would need to be around 13 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF or reduced by 81% below 2015 levels by 2050.
Long term target
Ecuador has so far not announced a long-term pathway nor any indicative targets for reaching net zero emissions.2
Sectors
Power
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Ecuador has already decarbonised a significant portion of its power sector, with 78% of power already generated from renewable sources in 2019, though the country missed its target of having 90% of its power supply come from renewables by 2021.3
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The share of renewable energy would need to increase to at least 98% by 2030 for the power sector to be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway. Furthermore, the country needs to rapidly phase out fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas.
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Coal is not used in Ecuador’s power sector, however, gas still accounted for roughly 4% and oil for roughly 17% of the country’s power production in 2019.4
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Fossil gas would need to be phased out of the power sector by 2028 at the latest and the overall emissions intensity of the power sector would need to reach zero by 2033 at the latest.
Buildings
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Ecuador’s buildings sector emissions come mainly from the combustion of oil products.
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Electrification and energy efficiency measures could lead to a full decarbonisation of the sector by 2052 at the latest.
Transport
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Emissions from Ecuador’s transport sector more than doubled between 1990 and 2019 coinciding with a steady increase in car ownership.
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Transport sector direct CO₂ emissions would need to fall to 77%–88% below 2019 levels by 2050 to be 1.5°C compatible.
Industry
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Industry sector emissions increased steadily from the turn of the century, until they peaked in 2014. The sector’s emissions represented 8% of Ecuador’s total GHG emissions in 2019.
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By 2040, around 90% of the sector’s energy demand will need to come from electricity, hydrogen and biomass for it to be 1.5°C compatible.