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Ecuador In brief

What is Ecuadorʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Economy wide

To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, Ecuador would need to reduce emissions by 24% compared to 2015 levels by 2025, equivalent to absolute emissions of 49 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF. By 2030, Ecuador would need to reduce emissions by 46% by 2030 compared to 2015 levels, equivalent to absolute emissions of 37 MtCO₂e. Ecuador will need international support to decarbonise in line with the assessed 1.5°C pathways.

Ecuadorʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
Net zero GHG excl. LULUCF*
Reference year
1.5°C emissions level
NDC (unconditional)
NDC (conditional)
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions

Conditional NDC

Ecuador’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets an emissions reduction target of 20.9% by 2025 compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Such reduction would lead to an emissions level of 63 MtCO₂e in 2025 (excl. LULUCF).1 This is equivalent to an emissions reduction of around 8% compared to 2015 levels. This target is conditional on international support.

1 Ministerio del Ambiente del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidad sobre Cambio Climático. Gobierno de Ecuador 1–44. 2019.

2 Plan Nacional de Mitigación del Cambio Climático (PLANMICC). 2021.

3 International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA Country Report: Ecuador. 2020.

4 MERNNR. Plan Maestro de Electricidad 2019-2027. MERNNR Ministerio de Energía y Recursos No RenovablesMinisterio de Energía y Recursos No Renovables 390. 2019.

5 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Primer Informe Bienal de Actualización de Ecuador. 2016.

6 Meta en Ecuador para depender menos del petróleo aún no se alcanza. El Universo. 2019.

7 Gobierno de Ecuador. Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático del Ecuador 2012-2025. vol. 148. 2012.

8 Ministerio de Energía y Recursos Naturales No Renovables (Ecuador). MINISTERIO DE ENERGÍA INICIÓ LA ELABORACIÓN DEL PLAN ENERGÉTICO NACIONAL DEL ECUADOR PROYECTADO AL 2050. Boletín de prensa. 2021.

9 Secretaría Nacional de Planificación y Desarrollo (Ecuador). Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2017-2021-Toda una Vida. 84. 2017.

10 Ministerio de Energía y Recursos Naturales No Renovables (Ecuador). Ecuador actualiza su Plan Maestro de Electricidad para impulsar inversiones en Energías Renovables No Convencionales por cerca de USD 2.200 Millones. Boletín de Prensa. 2021.

11 Energía Estratégica. Ecuador anuncia convocatorias para construir más de 1000 MW de energías renovables. Energía Estratégica. 2021.

12 Alvarado, P. Plan de electricidad busca captar inversiones por cerca de USD 2 200 millones. El Comercio. 2021.

13 Cristina, P. M. A. Análisis del Plan Nacional de Eficiencia Energética en el Ecuador. REVISTA RIEMAT 5, 28–34. 2020.

14 Ministerio de Ambiente del Ecuador. Ecuador’s forest reference emission level for deforestation. REDD UNFCCC Submissions 59. 2015.

15 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Bosques Para el Buen Vivir: Plan de Acción REDD+ Ecuador 2016-2025. 2016.

16 Ministerio del Ambiente y Agua del Ecuador. Plan de Implementación de la primera Contribución Nacional Determinada a nivel nacional del Ecuador 2020-2025 (PI-NDC). Preprint at (2021).

17 República del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Nacional Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático. Preprint at (2019).

2050 Ambition

On a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Ecuador’s GHG emissions would need to be around 13 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF or reduced by 81% below 2015 levels by 2050.

Long term target

Ecuador has so far not announced a long-term pathway nor any indicative targets for reaching net zero emissions.2



  • Ecuador has already decarbonised a significant portion of its power sector, with 78% of power already generated from renewable sources in 2019, though the country missed its target of having 90% of its power supply come from renewables by 2021.3
  • The share of renewable energy would need to increase to at least 98% by 2030 for the power sector to be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway. Furthermore, the country needs to rapidly phase out fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas.
  • Coal is not used in Ecuador’s power sector, however, gas still accounted for roughly 4% and oil for roughly 17% of the country’s power production in 2019.3
  • Fossil gas would need to be phased out of the power sector by 2028 at the latest and the overall emissions intensity of the power sector would need to reach zero by 2033 at the latest.
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  • Ecuador’s buildings sector emissions come mainly from the combustion of oil products.
  • Electrification and energy efficiency measures could lead to a full decarbonisation of the sector by 2052 at the latest.
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  • Emissions from Ecuador’s transport sector more than doubled between 1990 and 2019 coinciding with a steady increase in car ownership.
  • Transport sector direct CO₂ emissions would need to fall to 77%–88% below 2019 levels by 2050 to be 1.5°C compatible.
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  • Industry sector emissions increased steadily from the turn of the century, until they peaked in 2014. The sector’s emissions represented 8% of Ecuador’s total GHG emissions in 2019.
  • By 2040, around 90% of the sector’s energy demand will need to come from electricity, hydrogen and biomass for it to be 1.5°C compatible.
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