What is Ecuador's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 January 2022

1.5°C compatible pathways

In its current NDC, Ecuador sets the target of achieving an emissions level of 61 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF in 2025, equivalent to a 20.9% reduction below a BAU scenario.1 This target is conditional on international support. A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require maximum emissions of roughly 53 MtCO₂e in 2025, and 37 MtCO₂e in 2030 equivalent to a 46% reduction below 2015 levels. If Ecuador were to follow its trajectory towards 63 MtCO₂e in 2025 as set out in the NDC, the country would need to almost halve the remaining emissions in 5 years to be at a 1.5°C compatible emissions level in 2030.

Ecuador's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

Ecuador has not yet released a long-term target, although the government is developing a long-term mitigation strategy through 2050.2 To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Ecuador’s GHG emissions would need to be around 13 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, or reduced by 81% below 2015 levels by 2050. Agriculture will be the major remaining emitter beyond 2050, with a smaller share of non-CO₂ GHG emissions from the waste and industry sectors. If the power sector was 100% renewables-based and the country reduced significantly the fossil fuel use in transport, there would be no need for carbon removals to get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

Ecuador's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

To be in line with the 1.5°C goal, Ecuador’s total GHG emissions should not be more than 37 MtCO₂e by 2030. However, the government’s conditional NDC target is to be at 63 MtCO₂e emissions in 2025, a level almost 50% higher than the 1.5°C compatible pathway target for 2030.

To achieve a 1.5°C compatible 2030 emissions level, Ecuador would have to rapidly ramp up the share of renewable energy in total primary energy supply (TPES). Illustrative pathways indicate that at least 20% of TPES would need to be produced by non-biomass renewable sources by 2030. By 2050, the share of renewables should be at least 61%. Accomplishing this will require a rapid shift away from fossil fuel-based transport towards electrification and prioritising the use of non-hydro renewables in order to phase out gas and fuel oil in the power sector.

Ecuador's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Ecuador. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
69
70
37
34 to 43
22
14 to 24
13
9 to 16
2065
Relative to reference year in %
-46%
-51 to -37%
-68%
-79 to -65%
-81%
-87 to -77%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
43
42
24
15 to 27
8
-3 to 13
0
-4 to 4
2051
2038 to 2064
Relative to reference year in %
-44%
-64 to -37%
-82%
-107 to -70%
-100%
-109 to -90%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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