What is Ecuador's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
The energy sector, which includes all energy use across the economy, is responsible for the majority of Ecuador’s total GHG emissions. The sector accounted for 69% of total emissions in 2019. Transport is the most emitting sector at 34%, due to the overwhelming reliance on oil-based fuels. The power and industry sectors also still use a high proportion of fuel-oil and fossil gas for energy.1 Emissions in the agricultural sector, which account for 19% of total emissions, stem mainly from agricultural soils and livestock enteric fermentation.2 The 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here show that Ecuador could reduce its total emissions to between 49–57 MtCO₂e by 2025 which would be 1.5°C compatible.
Ecuador's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. LULUCF emissions are not available. Source: IEA GHG Emissionns 2021 and PRIMAP 2021.
Data References
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Energy system
Ecuador’s energy system overall still largely depends on fossil fuels, particularly in the industry and transport sectors which are primarily oil-dependent. Fossil fuels made up 83% of Ecuador’s total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2019, with oil alone accounting for 80%.3 The power sector is less dependent on fossil fuels with 78% renewable power generation in 2019, although oil still accounts for roughly 17% of power generation.4 The majority (76%) of renewable energy generation in Ecuador comes from hydropower, while solar and wind energy both still account for less than 1%.5 This share will need to be increased as quickly as possible to remain on a 1.5°C compatible pathway. The government has announced its plans to revise its Master Plan for Electricity 2019–2027 and in this context indicated its intention to continue relying on hydropower for the majority of the energy sector emissions reductions, including through adding 1200 MW of hydropower capacity generation in 2027. However, the government also projects a gradual increase for the use of gas, fuel oil and diesel in the power mix.6
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Unconditional NDC Target:
- As expressed by the country: 9% below BAU scenario by 2025 (excl. LULUCF).7
- Re-expressed excluding LULUCF below selected baseline: 2% above 2015 emission levels by 2025 (excl. LULUCF).
Conditional NDC Target:
- As expressed by the country: 20.9% below BAU scenario by 2025 (excl. LULUCF).8
- Re-expressed excluding LULUCF below selected baseline: 8% below 2015 emission levels by 2025 (excl. LULUCF).
Long-term target
The Ecuadorian government is currently in the process of designing its National Plan for the Mitigation of Climate Change (PLANMICC) which will extend the mitigation targets set out in its first NDC over a longer time horizon, with the objective of “decarbonising” by 2050.9
Sectoral targets
Energy
- In its National Climate Change Strategy 2012–2025 (ENCC), Ecuador indicates that the hydroelectric, wind and solar projects will help to mitigate energy emissions over the planning horizon, reducing emissions an estimated 8 MtCO₂e, 0.082 MtCO₂e and 0.1 MtCO₂e by 2025, respectively.10
- The government estimates energy efficiency improvements to mitigate 0.4 MtCO₂e by 2025.11
- The government started drafting its National Energy Plan 2050 (PEN 2050) in March 2021.12
Power
- The National Development Plan 2017–2021 set a target of 90% renewable power generation by 2021, but this target has not yet been achieved.13
- Since the initial release of the updated Master Electricity Plan through 2031, the government has indicated greater efforts towards non-hydro renewables with plans to install over 1000 MW of renewable energy capacity between 2025–2028. Most recently, it expanded this target to around 1400 MW by 2031.14–15
Transport
- The RENOVA Program under Ecuador’s ENCC aims to reduce transport sector emissions by 0.01 MtCO₂e per year through the modernisation of the country’s automotive fleet with more efficient technologies.16
- The National Energy Efficiency Plan 2016–2035 (PLANEEE) targets a cumulative reduction in energy use of 339.6 Mboe between 2015–2035.
Buildings
- The National Energy Efficiency Plan 2016–2035 (PLANEEE) sets a target to reduce total cumulative energy consumption from the buildings sector by 88.8 Mboe by 2035 through energy efficiency measures.17
Waste
- In its 2019 NDC, Ecuador indicates its intention to pursue greater capture and usage of biogas from waste, but doesn’t provide estimates of the waste sector’s mitigation potential nor the implementation of the activities so far.18
Agriculture
- In their 2019 NDC, Ecuador mentions implementing improved, sustainable fishing practices to reduce emissions from the sector, yet did not give any estimation of its mitigation potential nor additional mitigation measures.19
LULUCF
- In its 2019 NDC and REDD+ Strategy 2016–2025, Ecuador lists a separate mitigation target for the LULUCF sector, with the aim to reduce LULUCF emissions by 20% compared to the official Forest Reference Emissions Level of 43 MtCO₂e in 2008.20,21,22 This corresponds to maximum LULUCF emissions of 35 MtCO₂e in 2025.