What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United States
US is not on track to achieve 2030 target or 1.5°C-aligned pathway
To be 1.5°C compatible, the US would need to cut its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions to at least 58% below 2005 levels excluding LULUCF, and 66% including LULUCF. While recent legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), has revised down emissions projections, the US is still not on track to achieve its NDC target, let alone align with 1.5°C. President-elect Trump has said he will withdraw from the Paris Agreement and roll back the IRA.
Factsheet on the US’ 1.5ºC aligned emission levels for 2030 and 2035 can be accessed here.
United States' total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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US net zero emissions by 2050 target potentially aligned with 1.5°C pathways
The US aims to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Due to uncertainty around the country’s expected reliance on land use sinks, the target results in a range of 80–93% below 2005 levels by 2050 when excluding LULUCF. The more ambitious end of this range is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Further investment in renewables is needed to rapidly phase out fossil fuels from power system
1.5°C-aligned pathways show coal phased out of the power sector by 2030 and fossil gas by 2035. This would require a substantial increase in renewable capacity, particularly as end-use sectors electrify. The Net-Zero Commitments pathway, which achieves President Biden’s announced goal of a carbon-free power sector by 2035, would require investments in renewable capacity to peak between 2026–2030 at an annual average of USD 171 billion. By comparison, USD 94 billion was invested in renewable capacity in 2023.
Electrification and reduced demand key to decarbonising transport
The transport sector is the largest source of emissions in the US, with the transport fuel mix currently dominated by oil. Across analysed 1.5-aligned pathways, energy demand in the transport sector declines by 49–60% below 2021 levels by 2050 and electricity accounts for 33–60% of the energy mix. This indicates electrification paired with a modal shift away from road in both passenger and freight transport to rail and other sustainable modes of transport is key to driving down transport emissions.