What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United States
US exits Paris Agreement, invalidates 2030 and 2035 targets
The United States has exited the Paris Agreement for a second time and abandoned its 2030 and 2035 NDC targets. Significant rollbacks of climate policy across all sectors under the second Trump administration will slow progress on reducing emissions, placing greater pressure to make sharp emissions cuts on future generations.
United States' total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Further investment in renewables is needed to rapidly phase out fossil fuels from power system
1.5°C aligned pathways show coal phased out of the power sector by 2030 and fossil gas by 2035. This would require a substantial increase in renewable capacity, particularly as end-use sectors electrify. The Net-Zero Commitments pathway would require investments in renewable capacity to peak between 2026–2030 at an annual average of USD 157 bn. By comparison, USD 82 bn was invested in renewable capacity in 2024.
Electrification and reduced demand key to decarbonising transport
The transport sector is the largest source of emissions in the US, with the transport fuel mix currently dominated by oil. Across analysed 1.5°C aligned pathways, energy demand in the transport sector declines by 50-61% below 2022 levels by 2050 and electricity accounts for 33–60% of the energy mix. This would require extensive electrification paired with a modal shift away from road to rail in both passenger and freight transport, as well as other sustainable transport modes.