What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United States
Aggressive policy rollback could lead the United States to miss out on the security and economic benefits of the green transition
Under the second Trump administration, the United States has exited the Paris Agreement and backtracked on nearly every piece of climate and environmental policy in place at the federal level – reducing the pace of the necessary emissions reductions and risking an emissions increase domestically. Significant deregulation is expected to contribute to rising energy costs, decrease economic competitiveness, and place the United States at a significant disadvantage in the energy transition and green economy.
United States' total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Rapid electrification can increase economy-wide energy efficiency while reducing emissions and fossil fuel dependence
Primary energy is dominated by fossil fuels, but under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, rapid electrification leads to significant energy efficiency gains. The industry and transport sectors have significant potential to reduce emissions and make energy efficiency improvements. In the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, electricity, biofuels and synthetic fuels push oil and gas out of the transport energy mix by 2050 while increasing efficiency, reducing overall sectoral energy demand and emissions. In industry, total energy demand is projected to drop roughly 40% by 2050, driven by increased electrification, hydrogen and synthetic fuel uptake.
Rapid integration of wind and solar can drive American fossil fuel phase out
In the HPA scenario, wind and solar are the dominant forces behind the energy transition, pushing out fossil fuels and meeting soaring energy demand while reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels, improving system efficiency, and reducing power sector emissions.