What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
The US’ mitigation target in its 2021 NDC is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways. The NDC targets emissions reductions of 50–52% below 2005 levels by 2030 including LULUCF – equivalent to 45–50% when excluding LULUCF, or 3790–4130 MtCO2e/yr in 2030. To be 1.5°C compatible, the US would need to increase the ambition of its target to at least 58% below 2005 levels or 3199 MtCO2e/yr by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).
When including LULUCF, the US’ total emissions under 1.5°C compatible pathways would fall to 1313 MtCO2e, or 80% below 2005 levels by 2035. The US would need to strengthen its 2030 target in its 2021 NDC and submit a 2035 target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible. For more information on our indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways, please see our methodology page.
While recent legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act has shifted projected emissions downward, the US is still not on track to achieve its NDC target. President-elect Trump has announced his intention to again withdraw from the Paris Agreement once in office.1 He further intends to roll back climate policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act. Our current policies projection does not include impacts of the upcoming Trump presidency, which is expected to significantly increase emissions projections.2,3
A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require the US to go beyond its domestic emissions pathway and in addition provide increased levels of support for emissions reductions in developing countries.4
United States' total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
Under the Biden Administration, the US submitted its long-term strategy (LTS) in 2021 with the target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050.5 Due to uncertainty around how reliant the US will be on land use sinks as indicated in the LTS, we assess the net-zero target as a range of 80–93% emissions reductions below 2005 levels – or 558–1540 MtCO2e/yr by 2050 when the LULUCF sector is excluded.6 The more ambitious end of this range is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways as it relies more on advanced climate action and mitigation efforts, rather than uncertainty on LULUCF.
The form and scope of the target includes several positive elements, such as coverage of all GHGs and clear assumptions on the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches.7 However, the target is not legally binding. Enshrining this target in law would send a strong signal to private sector industries and indicate the US is committed to its targets.
According to the US government’s own projections, energy CO2 emissions alone are expected to range between 3300–4700 MtCO2e/yr by mid-century under current policies.8 This indicates the US will need to adopt further policies and measures, and/or strengthen existing ones, to achieve its net zero target.
United States' total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for United States. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
7538
|
6366
|
2543 to
3199
|
1551 to
2224
|
813 to
1415
|
-79 to
662
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-66 to
-58%
|
-79 to
-70%
|
-89 to
-81%
|
-101 to
-91%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
5948
|
4904
|
1949 to
2286
|
831 to
1525
|
178 to
837
|
-657 to
-29
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-67 to
-62%
|
-86 to
-74%
|
-97 to
-86%
|
-111 to
-100%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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