What is Serbia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Serbia

Economy wide

Submitted in August 2022, Serbia’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets a stronger emissions reduction target of 13.2% below 2010 levels by 2030. Although the NDC is described as an ‘economy-wide’ target, it doesn’t include the land use, land-use change and forestry sector (LULUCF).1 The updated target translates to an absolute emissions level of about 54 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF, and about 48 MtCO₂/yr including LULUCF.

Serbia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

2030 ambition

Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways suggests that Serbia need to reduce emissions by 44–54% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, excluding LULUCF. There is a significant gap between Serbia’s climate ambition and what would be required under the Paris Agreement.

Net zero GHG

Serbia has not officially communicated a net zero target. However, through its participation in the Energy Community, an international organisation consisting of the European Union and a number of non-EU countries, it has committed to adopting the EU Climate Law which makes achieving climate neutrality by 2050 legally binding.2

Net zero CO2

Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here indicate that Serbia would need to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 4–10 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, or by 85–93% when compared to 2010 levels excluding LULUCF. This is significantly more than the 55% emissions reduction that the government’s current policies are forecast to achieve.3

Negative emissions

On the road towards net zero emissions, Serbia will need to balance its remaining emissions through different carbon dioxide removal approaches.

Sectors

Power

  • Serbia’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), currently being drafted, envisages renewables to comprise 49–59% of the power sector energy mix by 2030. While this goal is a step in the right direction, 1.5°C compatible pathways would require an increase in renewable energy share to 85–98% by 2030.

  • The draft NECP also foresees the closure of all thermal power plants by 2050, while 1.5°C aligned pathways would require a phase-out of coal and gas by around 2030. Considering the current 70% share of coal in the power mix, Serbia will need robust policies to decarbonise its power sector.

Buildings

  • Energy consumption in the buildings sector increased by 24% in the period from 1990 to 2019. The share of electricity in the energy mix rose from 33% to 43% and the share of fossil fuels increased by 3% in the same period, with gas displacing coal.

  • 1.5°C compatible pathways show the share of electricity in the energy mix increasing from 43% in 2019 to between 56–61% in 2030, and 69–80% in 2050.

  • The government’s 2021 Law on Energy Efficiency and the Rational Use of Energy establishes financial incentives for energy efficient refurbishments. However, it only covers public buildings and businesses. To accelerate the transition and increase energy efficiency throughout, the law should be expanded to include private residential properties.

Industry

  • Energy-related emissions in Serbia’s industrial sector dropped by 47% between 1990 and 2019. Our analysis shows that putting Serbia’s industrial sector on a 1.5°C compatible pathway would require the share of electrification, hydrogen and biomass in the sector’s energy mix to increase to around 72% by 2050, from 43% in 2019, with electricity accounting for the biggest share.

  • Serbia’s Law on Energy Efficiency and the Rational Use of Energy includes incentives for increasing energy efficiency of the industrial sector and encourages cogeneration above a minimum benchmark of energy usage.

Transport

  • Passenger transport in Serbia relies on road transport for up to 88% of passenger-kilometres, while the modal split for freight is more balanced, with about 47% taking place by rail. The Serbian government has no policies in place to encourage a modal shift from private cars to public transport.

  • The government subsidises the purchase of an electric vehicle by up to EUR 5,000, but does not have any programmes in place to encourage investments in accompanying infrastructure such as charging points, nor other incentives that would boost the uptake of electric vehicles.

  • Serbia would need to electrify the remaining two thirds of its rail lines, and further invest in rail infrastructure.

  • All 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here foresee an increase in electrification, reaching between 9–30% by 2030, and 30–72% by 2050. The sector could be fully decarbonised by around 2053.

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