What is Serbia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Emissions related to energy use in Serbia’s industrial sector dropped by 47% between 1990 and 2019, from 9.8 MtCO₂e to 5.2 MtCO₂e, broadly reflecting a drop in the sector’s energy demand from 193 PJ to 91 PJ in the same time period.1
Serbia's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The historical emissions dataset PRIMAP-Hist used here shows that industrial process-related emissions in Serbia increased by 218% between 1990 and 2019, from 4.6 MtCO₂e to 14.6 MtCO₂e. However, Serbia’s _2nd National Communication] indicates a decrease in the industrial sector’s process-related emissions due to a slowdown of its cement, iron and steel manufacturing following the 2008 global financial crisis.2
All of the 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here show an increase in the combined share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass in the industrial sector’s energy mix to around 72% by 2050 from 43% in 2019. Electricity takes the biggest share.
The 2021 Serbian Law on Energy Efficiency and Rational Use of Energy requires industrial plants to submit energy usage statistics and energy efficiency improvement plans to the newly created agency. The law also includes provisions to provide financial incentives for companies to implement their energy efficiency plans and encourages cogeneration.3 However, the government has so far not communicated any policies to reduce industrial process-related emissions.
Serbia's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Serbia's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Serbia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
5
|
1 to
3
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
2039 to
2052
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-74 to
-40%
|
-92 to
-76%
|
-98 to
-85%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
35
|
38 to
40
|
51 to
52
|
59 to
59
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
43
|
51 to
52
|
63 to
67
|
72 to
72
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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