Current Situation

Emissions profile

Serbia’s main emitting sector is the energy sector which contributed 71% of all GHG emissions in 2019. Power sector is the most emitting sub-sector, responsible for 47% of total GHG emissions. The transport sector contributed 11% and industry energy use 5% of total GHG emissions in 2019, followed by others. Emissions from the power sector and industry energy use fell by 29% and 47%, respectively, between 1990 and 2019, whereas transport and building emissions increased in the same time period, by 54% and 8%, respectively.

Of the remaining emitting sectors, industrial processes contribute about 17% of total GHG emissions. The metal industry is responsible for the largest portion of industrial emissions, followed by cement and lime production, and finally the chemical industry. With the exception of the metal industry, all subsectors’ emissions have declined in the past two decades, bringing the overall industrial process emissions down.¹

Emissions from both the waste and agricultural sectors were declining between the 1990s and 2010, but have plateaued since then. Emissions from the waste sector in Serbia are linked to solid waste disposal and wastewater treatment, while enteric fermentation and manure management are mainly responsible for the agricultural emissions.²

Graph description

Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Source: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. LULUCF emissions from DCSP 2019, year of 2015. Combusiont emissions from IEA-GHG 2021.

Data References
- See data sources

Energy system

Serbia’s energy sector mostly relies on fossil fuels which comprised 87% of the total primary energy mix in 2019. Coal, mostly used for power generation and in industry, provided 49% of the total energy mix. Oil contributed 24% of the total energy mix and was mostly used in the transport sector. The remaining fossil fuel share was covered by fossil gas, mostly used in the industry and building sectors.³

Biomass and other renewable energy sources provided 13% of the energy mix in 2019. Biomass predominantly plays a role in the industrial and buildings sectors, while non-biomass renewables are primarily deployed in the power sector.

The power and transport sectors in Serbia’s energy system represent the greatest opportunities for decarbonisation. To achieve that, the government need to provide greater incentives for a modal shift in the transport sector as well as non-financial incentives to drive the uptake of electric vehicles. Furthermore, the current law on renewable energy sources does not allow yet for solar PV to enter the market, while this could be a strong leaver to deploy solar energy in the country.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Base year emissions target

NDC target

13.2% reduction compared to 2010 by 2030 or 54.4 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF
16.2% reduction compared to 2010 by 2030 or 47.8 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF

Market mechanisms

Serbia is expected to implement an emissions trading scheme under its commitment to the Energy Community via the Sofia Declaration, as well as its status as an EU candidate country, implying future accession to the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS).

Long-term target

Serbia aims to reach climate neutrality (net zero) by 2050, as obliged by its commitments to the Energy Community through the Sofia Declaration.⁴

Sectoral targets

Power

The share of renewable energy in power generation between 49–59% by 2030.
No fossil fuel power generation by 2050.

Transport

Limit GHG emissions growth by 10% by 2030 and decrease GHG emissions from the sector by between 30–54% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels.⁵

Industry

Limit GHG emissions growth from industrial processes and product use by 7% and maintain emissions between the range of +3% to –3 by 2050 compared to 2005 levels.⁶

Agriculture

Decrease GHG emissions from the sector by 15% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.⁷

Waste

Decrease GHG emissions from the sector by 13% by 2030 and between 29–69% by 2050 compared with 2010 levels.⁸

What is Serbia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?