What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Bangladesh
A 1.5°C compatible energy sector can also promote sustainable development goals
Bangladesh continues to rely on imported fossil fuels to meet its energy demand, which does not align with its long-term developmental goals nor 1.5°C compatible pathways. Although the government has established renewable energy targets (15% of generation by 2030) there is no clear plan in place to achieve them, and progress in this area has been minimal. This could result in significant emissions growth as overall energy demand is expected to grow significantly with economic development.
Bangladesh's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Raising 2030 ambition is critical, but international support needed
Achieving 1.5°C compatible pathways would see Bangladesh’s 2030 emissions (excluding LULUCF) rise by a maximum of 18% above 2012 levels. That involves pushing ambition well beyond its current conditional and unconditional NDC targets. This would require annual investments in renewable energy capacity of USD 1-2 billion between 2026-2030, reaching between USD 7-8 billion between 2031-2040, depending on the pathway. To realise this, international support is crucial.
More renewables, less gas in a 1.5°C aligned power sector
Fossil gas dominates power generation in Bangladesh, and coal use has increased since 2019. 1.5°C aligned pathways show a gas phase out before 2070 and coal is not deployed. Gas would be replaced by renewables, which reach 76-83% of the mix by 2040, up from the 2023 level of less than 2%.