What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Bangladesh’s 2021 NDC was updated to increase ambition for both its conditional and unconditional targets.1 The unconditional target aims for a 6.7% reduction of GHG emissions below business-as-usual by 2030 including LULUCF and the conditional target aims for a 15.1% reduction. When excluding LULUCF, the conditional target is equivalent to 93% above 2012 levels. The updated targets cover all sectors, with most of the reduction coming from the energy sector (about 95%), while the previous NDC only covered the power, industry and transport sectors.2
1.5°C compatible pathways would see Bangladesh reach emissions levels of 196 MtCO2e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF. This equates to a 18% increase in GHG emissions above 2012 levels by 2030. Bangladesh would need international support to implement mitigation measures that close the gap between its fair share and its 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.
Bangladesh's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways for Bangladesh indicate that the country would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 43% below 2012 levels or to 95 MtCO2e/yr by 2050, excluding LULUCF. Remaining emissions, mostly from agriculture and waste, could then be balanced through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as strengthened sinks from the land sector.
As of November 2024, Bangladesh has not submitted a long-term strategy. In 2023, Bangladesh released its Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP). The plan includes a net zero scenario by 2050 for energy-based GHGs, which indicates that energy and environmental policies will need to be strengthened to achieve this goal, but at the same time the scenario shows only a 5.4% share of renewable energy in primary energy in 2050.3 However, the IEPMP also mentioned that, given Bangladesh’s development, 2070 is likely to be a more realistic year to reach net zero.
Bangladesh's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Bangladesh. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2012
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
166
|
210
|
153 to
196
|
127 to
169
|
105 to
144
|
77 to
95
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-8 to
18%
|
-23 to
2%
|
-37 to
-13%
|
-54 to
-43%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
83
|
133
|
58 to
91
|
32 to
76
|
8 to
55
|
-16 to
15
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-30 to
10%
|
-61 to
-8%
|
-90 to
-34%
|
-119 to
-82%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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