What is Bhutan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Bhutan
Economy wide
Our analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Bhutan needs to reduce GHG emissions by 43-78% below 2015 levels, equivalent to 0.5–1.2 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2050.
Bhutan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
Bhutan’s forests can currently absorb more emissions than other sectors are producing. In the updated 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the government reiterates its intention to remain carbon neutral if the country receives adequate international support.
However, Bhutan’s emissions have increased consistently since 2008, and under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, emissions will surpass the sink capacity of the country’s forestry sector between 2041 and 2045 under various economic growth scenarios.
Long-term strategy
In its updated NDC, which was submitted to the UNFCCC in 2021, Bhutan sets a goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Bhutan has not yet submitted a Long-term Strategy (LTS), but the sectoral Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) provides detailed measures for keeping the country carbon neutral along with the investments needed to achieve this goal.