What is Bhutan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Raising 2030 ambition
In its updated NDC, submitted in 2021, Bhutan commits to remaining carbon neutral. According to its third national communication to UNFCCC, Bhutan’s carbon sink capacity in 2015 was 7.8 MtCO₂e (after converting in to GWP AR4), which means that to remain carbon neutral, it would need to keep emissions below 7.8 MtCO₂e.1 Bhutan’s BAU emissions level translates into an increase in emissions of 78–80% above 2015 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).
Bhutan’s current policies and action have been rated compatible with a 1.5°C trajectory by the Climate Action Tracker2 While Bhutan’s first NDC covered broad priority action areas, its updated NDC further elaborates priority mitigation actions in the form of a low emissions development strategy (LEDS) for food security, human settlement, transport and industry. The mitigation actions are conditional on international financial support. If Bhutan implements the measures listed in its NDC and LEDS, its emissions would increase much less, by 7–21% above 2015 levels by 2030(excluding LULUCF).
1.5°C compatible pathways would require Bhutan to reach emissions levels of 1.7–2.3 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, a reduction of around 26% below 2015 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). The country would need international support to implement its planned mitigation measures.
Bhutan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
1.5°C compatible pathways for Bhutan indicate that the country will need to reduce its GHG emissions by 46–79% below 2015 levels (or reach 0.5–1.2 MtCO₂e) by 2050, excluding LULUCF.
As part of its updated NDC, submitted in July 2021, Bhutan sets an indicative goal of reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050. While Bhutan has not submitted a long-term strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC as of April 2023, its updated NDC aims to maintain carbon neutrality. Within the NDC document, the government has developed Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS) for transport, industrial, human settlement, and food sectors outlining how Bhutan aims to maintain carbon neutrality. Yet, the net zero goal outlined in the LEDS relies, at least partially, on emissions credits gained by exporting renewable hydropower to India.
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Bhutan. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
2
|
3
|
2
2 to
2
|
1
1 to
1
|
1
0 to
1
|
2067
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-6%
-21 to
6%
|
-46%
-53 to
-33%
|
-58%
-78 to
-43%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
1
|
2
|
1
1 to
2
|
1
0 to
1
|
0
-0 to
1
|
2061
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
6%
-5 to
19%
|
-38%
-81 to
-19%
|
-78%
-114 to
-48%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
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