What is Zimbabwe's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Zimbabwe
Economy wide
International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway, which requires a reduction of 46% below 2015 levels by 2030, whereas the NDC’s target is equivalent to 57% above 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF.
Zimbabwe's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
Zimbabwe’s 2021 updated NDC target is a conditional 40% per capita emissions reduction across all sectors of the economy, below the projected business as usual scenario by 2030, relative to the 2017 emission baseline.1
Long-term strategy
Zimbabwe’s Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (2020-2050) identifies an economy-wide approach to reduce emissions with an estimated abatement potential of up to 33 MtCO₂e by 2050, or around 50% GHG emissions reductions from BAU.2,3
Emissions reductions
Reductions from the AFOLU sector are expected to provide nearly half of the abatement (47%), followed by those from the energy (44%), waste (6.1%), and IPPU (2.7%) sectors.4
2050 Ambition
1.5°C compatible pathways would require the country to reduce its GHG emissions by 54-74% below 2015 levels by 2050 excluding LULUCF.
Sectors
Power
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Zimbabwe’s power sector, which relies mostly on coal (53%), followed by renewable energy at 47%, would need to be 96-98% renewable energy based by 2030 to reach full decarbonisation at the latest by 2035.
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To avoid a carbon lock-in and stranded assets, coal would need to be phased out in the early 2030’s, depending on the model analysed, combined with the reduction of fossil fuel based power imports from neighboring countries. In contrast, however, in 2018 Zimbabwe undertook to increase Hwange coal plant’s generation capacity from 920 MW to 1520 MW.5
Buildings
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The building sector plays a minor role in Zimbabwe’s carbon footprint (around 1% of total GHG in 2017).
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The sector’s energy consumption is expected to grow in response to increasing demand.
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To support the sector’s decarbonisation in line with the 1.5°C compatible pathways, its electrification rate would need to increase from around 4% of the energy demand in 2019 to around 30-37% by 2030.
Industry
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The mineral and metal industries dominate Zimbabwe’s industry sector, but the sector only contributes 4% (when excl. LULUCF) to Zimbabwe’s total emissions (in 2017).
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Process emissions have trended downward between 2000 and 2017 due to performance decline of the industry sector and the overall contraction of the economy.
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By increasing the share of electricity to around just below 50% by 2030 in the industry sector’s energy demand, Zimbabwe could achieve close to a full decarbonisation of the industrial sector by the mid-2030s.
Transport
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The transport sector is almost completely reliant on oil (95% of its fuel mix), with some biofuels in the mix.
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In all the scenarios analysed, the sector is close to fully decarbonised (less than 5 gCO₂/MJ) between 2034 and 2037. Decarbonisation of the sector will be mostly driven by electrification and increased share of biofuels in the fuel mix, reaching 7-27% by 2030 and 50-82% by 2030 respectively.