What is Zimbabwe's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Zimbabwe’s first NDC contained a 33% reduction in the emissions from the energy sector only, whereas the revised 2021 NDC includes emissions from waste, IPPU and AFOLU in its mitigation target of 40% reduction in per capita GHG emissions below BAU by 2030 (projected to be 44.7 MtCO₂e) when including LULUCF.1 When excluding LULUCF, this target is equivalent to emissions 57% above 2015 levels by 2030.2
Despite this increase in ambition from the previous NDC, Zimbabwe’s revised NDC is not yet in line with mitigation efforts required to be on a 1.5°C pathway. Analysed pathways show that this would require reductions of 46% (39% - 53%) below 2015 levels or absolute emissions of only 14 (12-15) MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.
Zimbabwe's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Zimbabwe’s Long-Term Strategy (LTS) for 2020-2050 includes a goal to reduce emissions by up to 33 MtCO₂e by 2050, or around 50% of BAU GHG emissions. Reductions from the AFOLU sector are expected to provide nearly half of the abatement (47%), followed by those from the energy (44%), waste (6.1%), and IPPU (2.7%) sectors.3
When excluding LULUCF, 1.5°C compatible pathways would require reductions of 68% below 2015 levels by 2050 or an emissions level of around 8 MtCO₂e.
Even with reduced emissions in the period to 2050, AFOLU remains a predominant emitting sector while the energy sector is the first sector to decarbonise; thus the need to focus on these areas.
Zimbabwe's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
Biomass accounts for 66% of the primary energy mix in Zimbabwe and is mostly used in households for cooking.4 Only 41% of the population has access to electricity, and 80% of Zimbabweans are estimated to rely on biomass for cooking instead of cleaner fuel options, which worsens indoor air pollution.5,6 Regarding efficient cookstoves, which also have benefits on health, the 2021 NDC states that there isn’t a ‘clear local implementing agency to advance that particular project’.7 However, transitioning away from traditional biomass will be key for Zimbabwe’s sustainable energy transition.
Transformation of the energy system away from reliance on coal to supply electricity and dependence on oil in the transport sector - accounting respectively for 15% and 10% of primary energy supply - will play an important role in Zimbabwe’s energy transition.8&9
Zimbabwe's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Zimbabwe. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
25
|
24
|
14
12 to
15
|
11
8 to
12
|
8
6 to
12
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-46%
-53 to
-39%
|
-58%
-70 to
-53%
|
-68%
-74 to
-54%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
13
|
12
|
6
5 to
7
|
3
1 to
4
|
2
0 to
3
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-51%
-63 to
-45%
|
-76%
-90 to
-66%
|
-86%
-96 to
-74%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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