What is Zimbabwe's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
The mineral, metal and chemical industries are the mainstay of Zimbabwe’s industry sector with emissions intensive ferrochrome and cement production, and nitrogen fertiliser production dominating outputs.1,2 Even though these industries also tend to be energy intensive, their small scale in the country means the sector’s emissions – of 3.8% (when excl. LULUCF) - were a small proportion of Zimbabwe’s total emissions in 2017. Between 1990 and 2019 the carbon intensity of the industry followed a downward trend from 67 gCO₂/MJ to 37 gCO₂/MJ due in large part to a flagging economy and competition from cheaper fertiliser imports.3,4
Zimbabwe's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Direct CO₂ emissions from the sector were just over 1 MtCO₂e in 2019. The low CDR reliance pathway has the sharpest decline and shows emissions at just above zero by 2030. Depending on the scenario, the industry sector would need to be decarbonised around the mid-2030s. Increasing electrification of the sector will be one of the levers to decarbonise, with scenarios indicating an increase from 39% in 2019 to just below 50% by 2030.
Process emissions have trended downward between 2000 and 2017 due to the decline in the performance of the industry sector and overall contraction of the economy.5 Process related emissions were about 1.2 MtCO₂e in 2019, but in contrast to direct emissions, these are projected to peak at 3.3 MtCO₂e in 2040 under low demand circumstances.
Zimbabwe's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Zimbabwe's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Zimbabwe
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
-0 to
0
|
2034 to
2038
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-83 to
-47%
|
-99 to
-96%
|
-101 to
-98%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
39
|
45 to
55
|
58 to
84
|
62 to
91
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
59
|
76 to
89
|
93 to
99
|
96 to
100
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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