What is Malaysia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Malaysia
Economy wide
Cost-effective 1.5°C compatible pathways show that Malaysia would need to reduce its emissions by 57% below 2015 emission levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF (or 141 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030). With international support, Malaysia will be able to implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and modelled domestic emissions level.
Malaysia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
Malaysia’s NDC aims to reduce the GHG emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, relative to the emissions intensity of GDP in 2005. The first 35% of this reduction is unconditional. The final 10% is conditional on climate finance, technology transfer and capacity-building to be provided by developed countries.
2030 NDC
Malaysia’s overall NDC is equivalent to an increase of 8% above 2015 levels by 2030 (or 349 MtCO₂e/yr when excluding LULUCF).1
2050 Ambition
Malaysia is currently developing its Long term Low Emissions Development Strategy.2 1.5°C compatible pathways would require Malaysia to reduce GHG emissions, when excluding LULUCF, by 85-90% below 2015 levels by 2050.3 With its historical net LULUCF emissions of 127 MtCO₂e from 2001 to 2020 and projected sinks under BAU up to –227 MtCO₂e/yr, Malaysia will need to implement stringent deforestation policies to reach net zero GHG.4,5
Decarbonisation
A key opportunity for decarbonisation is through scaling up renewable power and ‘sector coupling’ – that is, electrifying buildings, transport and industry. Policies are also required to tackle waste emissions, particularly from palm oil mill effluent.
Sectors
Power
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A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Malaysia to reduce its power sector’s emissions intensity by 74-79% from 2019 level by 2030. The energy sector contributes 75% of Malaysia’s emissions, with the lion’s share (30%) coming from the power sector.
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Malaysia has 2.8 GW of coal capacities in its pipeline, scheduled to replace decommissioned coal capacity.6 These plans stand in contrast with the need to phase out coal by 2035, followed by a phase-out of gas by around 2035 to 2038. Instead, the government should invest in renewable energy alternatives to avoid risks of stranded assets, high costs and carbon lock in to reach 72-76% share of renewables in its energy generation.
Buildings
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Malaysia building sector consumes 14% of the total energy and 53% of electricity. Since 2005 energy consumption of the building sector has increased at a rate of 3.4% annually.
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All analysed scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions from the building sector reaching 2-2.5 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 from 2019 level of 3.5 MtCO₂/yr, and fully decarbonised by 2049-2052.
Transport
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While Malaysia’s transport sector is currently completely dependent on oil (98% in 2020), 1.5°C compatible pathways show rapid electrification of the sector, with electricity share of 2-11% by 2030 and up to 56% by 2050.
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Government has introduced tax incentives to boost the uptake of electric vehicles.
Industry
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The industry sector accounts for the second largest share of primary energy demand with 28% in 2017. Primary energy demand in industry is heavily dominated by fossil fuels, at 65% in 2020.
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1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the share of electricity in the industry energy mix should increase by 25-35% by 2030 and 60-73% by 2050.
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While the share of industrial process emissions was 9% of total emissions in 2019 all 1.5°C pathways show a declining trend of process emissions from 2020.