Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Malaysia’s NDC aims to reduce the GHG emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by
2030, relative to the emissions intensity of GDP in 2005. The first 35% of this reduction is unconditional. The final 10% is conditional on climate finance, technology transfer and capacity-building to be provided by developed countries.

For Malaysia to be on a 1.5°C compatible trajectory, its NDC would need to target GHG emissions reductions of around 57% below 2015 levels or to be around 141 MtCO₂e/yr (excluding LULUCF) by 2030. This stands in contrast with its current conditional NDC targeting a reduction of GHG emissions of 8% above 2015 levels, equivalent to 349 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF, which is close to double the emissions levels required to meet a 1.5°C pathway in 2030. With international support, Malaysia will be able to implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and modelled domestic emissions level.

Malaysia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Malaysia does not have a long term emissions reduction target, although a Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy is currently under development.¹ A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require GHG emissions to reduce by 85-90% below 2015 levels by 2050 (or 33-48 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050).² On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining GHG emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as land sinks.

While the government projects a net sink under a “business as usual” scenario, this appears unrealistic compared to the historical LULUCF net emissions of 127 MtCO₂e/yr from 2001-2020.³^,⁴ Malaysia will need to implement more ambitious LULUCF policies, that would amongst others, address deforestation, which has resulted in the loss of 278 thousands hectares of forests in 2021.

All analysed 1.5°C scenarios show substantial decreases in emissions across all sectors. Some scenarios show that energy efficiency and electrification will be key in the decarbonisation of transport and industry sectors.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Renewable energy accounted for 3% of the total primary energy supply in 2017. Our analysis shows renewables can be scaled up to 14% by 2030 and 66% by 2050 in a high energy demand low carbon dioxide removal (CDR) reliance scenario.

This scenario would require a ramp up of renewable energy, and the electrification of the transport, industry and building sectors. Renewable energy can displace fossil fuel use and support Malaysia’s energy independence. Well planned sector coupling strategies and roadmaps can decarbonise sectors simultaneously, and support grid stability from variable renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind with batteries or storage solutions and demand side management. This strategy would also support the reliability and efficiency of the grid.

Malaysia indicates in tis NDC the level of international financial, technical and capacity building support required to meet its target.⁵^,⁶^,⁷ Amongst others, some interventions that could be supported includes the scaling up of solar and energy storage project, the adoption of high efficiency motors, the development of a model and roadmaps for electric transport and an incentive mechanism.

In all scenarios, energy remains the largest source of emissions. The electricity sector can be decarbonised through renewable energy technologies backed up by storage and supported by energy efficiency measures. Malaysia would need to scale up efforts to support renewable energy installation beyond current policies and targets.

Establishing clear signals through ambitious targets would improve the bankability of renewable energy projects and increase investor confidence. At present, the lack of government policy leads the Malaysian finance sector to be uncertain about profitability and scalability of renewables.⁸

Other studies have identified means for decarbonising the transport sector such as improving urban design, expanding rail networks, improving fuel efficiency, electric vehicles and higher shares of EVs.⁹^,¹⁰ Malaysia needs to set policies to deliver on its target for 100% EVs by 2030.¹¹

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Malaysia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	325	360	141 124 to 177	72 49 to 77	41 33 to 48	2069
Relative to reference year in %			-57% -62 to -45%	-78% -85 to -76%	-88% -90 to -85%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	254	285	114 101 to 141	58 19 to 64	12 5 to 35	2065
Relative to reference year in %			-55% -60 to -44%	-77% -93 to -75%	-95% -98 to -86%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Download data as CSV

The Edge Markets. Environment ministry to develop LT-LEDS for UNFCCC consideration. The Edge Markets. (2021). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Global Forest Watch. Malaysia Interactive Forest Map & Tree Cover Change Data. (2021). ↩
LULUCF emissions are projected to be –227 MtCO₂e in 2030 following a business-as-usual scenario reported in Malaysia’s Second Biennial Report. ↩
Ministry of Environment and Water. Malaysia Third Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC. (2020). ↩
Susskind, L. et al. Breaking Out of Carbon Lock-In: Malaysia’s Path to Decarbonization. Front. Built Environ. 6, 21 (2020). doi:10.3389/fbuil.2020.00021/full ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Susskind, L. et al. Breaking Out of Carbon Lock-In: Malaysia’s Path to Decarbonization. Front. Built Environ. 6, 21 (2020). doi:10.3389/fbuil.2020.00021/full ↩
Susskind, L. et al. Breaking Out of Carbon Lock-In: Malaysia’s Path to Decarbonization. Front. Built Environ. 6, 21 (2020). doi:10.3389/fbuil.2020.00021/full ↩
Mustapa, S. I. & Bekhet, H. A. Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach. Energy Policy 89, 171–183 (2016). ↩
KeTTHA. Green Technology Master Plan Malaysia 2017-2030. (2017). ↩

What is Malaysia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Malaysia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Malaysia's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Malaysia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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