A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Malaysia to reduce its power sector’s emissions intensity by 74-79% from 2019 level by 2030. The energy sector contributes 75% of Malaysia’s emissions, with the lion’s share (30%) coming from the power sector.
Malaysia has 2.8 GW of coal capacities in its pipeline, scheduled to replace decommissioned coal capacity.4 These plans stand in contrast with the need to phase out coal by 2035, followed by a phase-out of gas by around 2035 to 2038. Instead, the government should invest in renewable energy alternatives to avoid risks of stranded assets, high costs and carbon lock in to reach 72-76% share of renewables in its energy generation.
Malaysia building sector consumes 14% of the total energy and 53% of electricity. Since 2005 energy consumption of the building sector has increased at a rate of 3.4% annually.
All analysed scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions from the building sector reaching 2-2.5 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 from 2019 level of 3.5 MtCO₂/yr, and fully decarbonised by 2049-2052.
While Malaysia’s transport sector is currently completely dependent on oil (98% in 2020), 1.5°C compatible pathways show rapid electrification of the sector, with electricity share of 2-11% by 2030 and up to 56% by 2050.
Government has introduced tax incentives to boost the uptake of electric vehicles.
The industry sector accounts for the second largest share of primary energy demand with 28% in 2017. Primary energy demand in industry is heavily dominated by fossil fuels, at 65% in 2020.
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the share of electricity in the industry energy mix should increase by 25-35% by 2030 and 60-73% by 2050.
While the share of industrial process emissions was 9% of total emissions in 2019 all 1.5°C pathways show a declining trend of process emissions from 2020.