What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Türkiye
Aligning the renewables rollout with 1.5°C
A 1.5°C compatible power sector would see Türkiye rapidly increase its installed renewable capacity. The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which reduces dependence on CDR investments which would be better used in hard-to-abate industries, would see 113 GW of installed renewables capacity by 2030. 78% of this would be met by wind and solar, with the remainder supplied by hydro and smaller shares of biomass and geothermal. Türkiye’s current 2030 target aims to increase renewable capacity to 91 GW.
Türkiye's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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The cost of business-as-usual outweigh the cost of low-carbon electricity
Fossil fuels come with a heavy price tag – imports cost USD 66 bn in 2024 alone, and coal pollution has had a cumulative health cost of EUR 320 billion between 1965–2020. While rolling out wind and solar at a 1.5°C compatible rate will cost over USD 7.6 bn between 2026–2030 and USD 3.7 bn between 2031–2040, the benefits are felt immediately. Türkiye’s expensive import bill was USD 12 billion less due to savings from wind and solar power generation.
Unlocking rooftop solar could slash buildings and industry emissions
To align with 1.5°C, 40–43% of the buildings sector (and 39–51% of the industry sector) would need to be electrified by 2030. Türkiye has 120 GW of potential rooftop solar capacity. Streamlining the regulatory environment to roll out renewables more quickly and align with 1.5°C could cut energy costs for households and businesses.