What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Türkiye
1.5°C pathways would see Türkiye’s emissions nearly halved by 2030 compared to 2021
However, Türkiye’s 2030 NDC goal allows for a substantial increase in emissions. Although formulated in the NDC as a reduction of 41% below business-as-usual levels, this is equivalent to an increase of 61% above 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF). Meeting a 1.5°C aligned pathway would see Türkiye reduce its emissions to 34% below 2015 levels by 2030, and 47% by 2035 excluding LULUCF.
Türkiye's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Strengthening Türkiye’s renewables targets would increase energy independence and cut energy import bills
According to a pathway which minimises reliance on carbon dioxide removal, Türkiye would need to increase renewable energy capacity to 113 GW by 2030. This would entail capacity-related investments of USD 7.7 bn annually. Given that Türkiye’s reliance on imported fossil fuels amounted to a net energy trade deficit of USD 81.1 bn in 2022 alone, investing in renewables can cut costs, emissions, and dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets.
Coal and gas in the power sector a threat to 1.5°C
Dependency on foreign imports has driven the Turkish government to expand fossil fuel production for power generation. This is not in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which require a coal phase-out from the power sector in the early 2030s. The share of renewables would need to reach 96-98% by 2030 for the sector to be Paris compatible (from 42% in 2023).