What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
In 2021, Türkiye’s power sector was split between renewables including hydropower (36%), coal (31%), and gas (33%).1 According to IEA data, both renewables and coal have seen their share in Türkiye’s electricity generation rise in recent years. In 2023, Türkiye’s power sector was split between renewables (42%), coal (36%), and gas (21%).2
Türkiye's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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To be 1.5°C aligned, the power sector would need to be almost fully decarbonised between 2030-2034, driven by a ramp up of renewables to 96-98% of the mix alongside a fossil fuel phase-out.
Both the Deep Electrification and Net-Zero Commitments pathways envision Türkiye’s power sector being almost fully supplied by renewable energy by 2030, driven by rapidly declining renewables prices in the former and optimal carbon pricing in the latter.
The government’s recently announced Renewable Energy Roadmap 2035 commits to increasing wind and solar capacity to 120 GW by 2035.3 Türkiye expects the total cost of these additions to come to USD 108 bn, with USD 80 bn directed towards wind and solar capacity and USD 28 bn directed towards upgrading transmission infrastructure.4,5 This would bring the share of renewables (incl. hydro and biomass) in installed electricity capacity to 70% in 2035.
According to its 2053 Long Term Climate Strategy, Türkiye does not intend to roll out renewables beyond a 70% share.6 In 2053, Türkiye projects that total electricity demand will reach 1,271 TWh, with renewables meeting 69% of this demand, slightly less than its 2035 share. This level of demand is about double that projected in analysed 1.5°C pathways, even given high electrification of end-use sectors assumed in the pathways. The Deep Electrification pathway, which allows for the highest electricity demand of the assessed pathways, has a final electricity demand of 690 TWh in 2050, around half of what is projected by Türkiye.
Türkiye's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Türkiye’s Renewable Energy Roadmap 2035 aims to add “at least 7.5–8 GW” of additional wind and solar capacity online each year until 2035 in order to achieve the 120 GW target.7 While this target sets a minimum annual goal, for the target to be successfully reached, an annual average of 9 GW would need to be added.
Türkiye has huge wind and solar potential and can feasibly add significantly more capacity than its current plans.8,9,10 Of the USD 108 bn that Türkiye expects the wind and solar rollout to cost up to 2035, USD 80 bn will be spent on wind and solar capacity.11,12
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which sees the slowest renewables rollout of any of the assessed pathways, shows wind and solar capacity reaching 90 GW in 2030. Between 2026-2030 under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, annual investments in wind would amount to USD 3.7 bn while annual investments in solar would amount to USD 2.6 bn. Despite significantly higher solar capacity, investment costs would be lower for solar due to the lower cost of the technology.
These figures pale in comparison to Türkiye’s annual fossil fuel import bill. In 2022 alone, Türkiye’s net energy trade deficit was USD 81.1 bn.13 Shifting investments away from imported fossil fuels towards domestic renewable energy would cut costs, emissions, and Türkiye’s reliance on volatile international energy markets.14
Renewables costs will further decline as economies of scale expand. Between 2030-2050, investments in solar capacity would fall to an average of USD 1.5 bn annually to bring total solar capacity to 201 GW by mid-century under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway.
Grid upgrades and energy storage would require additional investments to those considered in this analysis. Türkiye currently expects USD 28 bn by 2035 would be required to prepare the grid for higher shares of renewables.15 While renewable energy storage investments are increasing, Türkiye continues to invest heavily in fossil gas storage infrastructure.16, 17,18
Türkiye's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
428
|
5 to
19
|
-4 to
0
|
-5 to
0
|
-7 to
0
|
2030 to
2034
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-99 to
-96%
|
-101 to
-100%
|
-101 to
-100%
|
-102 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
31
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
33
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
36
|
96 to
98
|
99 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
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