What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
In 2022, Türkiye’s power sector was made up of renewables (42%), coal (35%), and gas (23%).1 To place itself on a 1.5°C trajectory, Türkiye’s power sector will need to be decarbonised between 2030–2034, driven by a ramp up of renewables and a phase-out of fossil fuels.
Türkiye's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Türkiye’s current targets would see renewables (incl. biomass and hydro) account for 61% of capacity in 2030, and 71% in 2035.2 Aside from nuclear (which will make up 3% of capacity in 2035), the government does not specify which fuels will supply the remaining capacity. The remaining 26% share will be met by a combination of coal and gas, though the precise shares for each fuel are not clear. Nevertheless, a 26% share of either coal or gas in the power sector in 2035 is incompatible with 1.5°C pathways.
Both the Deep Electrification and Net-Zero Commitments pathways envision a 96% share of renewables in Türkiye’s power sector by 2030 and 99% by 2035, driven by rapidly declining renewables prices in the former and optimal carbon pricing in the latter.
Türkiye’s coal consumption causes an array of significant health and economic impacts for Turkish citizens. Coal pollution has caused 1.2 million cases of bronchitis in children and has had a cumulative health cost of EUR 320 billion between 1965–2020.3 Volatility in fossil fuel markets combined with increasing costs mean that Türkiye’s coal investments will likely saddle the country in stranded assets and make Turkish industry less competitive.4,5,6
Türkiye's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Türkiye’s current wind and solar targets aim to increase installed capacity to 51 GW by 2030 and 120 GW by 2035. When other renewables are included (mostly hydro with smaller shares of biomass and geothermal), this would amount to 91 GW in 2030 and 160 GW in 2035.
To achieve the 2035 target, investments of USD 80 bn will be directed towards a combination of renewables and battery storage, which will be met through public and private finance.7 The government has sought to improve investor certainty though streamlined permitting and auction processes.8,9 These policies are already bearing fruit, with 2024 seeing record levels of wind and solar deployed (10 GW).10,11
This is positive, but 2024 levels need to be sustained if Türkiye’s power sector is to align with 1.5°C. The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway is the most cost-effective of our assessed 1.5°C pathways – renewables investments would amount to USD 7.65 bn/yr between 2026–2030 under this pathway. As renewables costs continue to tumble, annual investments would fall to USD 3.74 bn/yr between 2031–2040. 1.5°C pathways show higher investments in wind relative to solar and other renewables out to 2030, with solar investments overtaking wind in the 2030s. This would ultimately lead to 113 GW of installed renewables capacity by 2030, rising to 147 GW by 2035.
The costs entailed in meeting the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway also include hidden savings. As the pathway minimises the use of expensive CDR technologies, Türkiye can align its power sector with 1.5°C cost-effectively and dedicate CDR resources to hard-to-abate sectors such as the cement industry. This is particularly pressing given that Türkiye intends to direct significant funds towards CDR for its large cement sector.12
Our figures do not account for battery storage and improvements to transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure. Türkiye currently intends to direct USD 28 bn towards upgrading T&D infrastructure to integrate higher shares of renewables onto the grid.13
Türkiye's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
411
|
5 to
19
|
-4 to
0
|
-5 to
0
|
-7 to
0
|
2030 to
2034
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-99 to
-95%
|
-101 to
-100%
|
-101 to
-100%
|
-102 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
35
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
23
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
42
|
96 to
98
|
99 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
98 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
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