What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the buildings sector
In 2021, the buildings sector was responsible for 11% of Türkiye’s total emissions. Fossil gas made up 47% of the sector’s energy mix, followed by electricity (30%) and coal (11%). To align with 1.5°C, the buildings sector’s energy mix would need to shift away from fossil fuels towards a higher share of electricity.
Türkiye's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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All assessed 1.5°C compatible pathways show a similar trend; the share of fossil fuels drops substantially, replaced by a higher share of electricity and increased energy efficiency. The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway shows the fastest cuts in fossil fuel use, which falls to 40% of the mix in 2030 and are effectively phased out by 2050. Electricity’s share of the mix in 2050 (82%) is lower than the other pathways where slightly higher shares of fossil fuels remain, but this is balanced out by maintaining moderate shares of bioenergy (8%).
Increased use of clean energy under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway would be complemented by strong energy efficiency measures. Energy use would decrease 26% by 2030 and halve by mid-century compared to 2021 levels. Türkiye recognises the potential of energy efficiency measures in the buildings sector to reduce overall emissions and has a suite of policies intended to improve energy efficiency in the sector.1 Nevertheless, significant efficiency upgrades will be needed to achieve 1.5°C compatible emissions levels, which would see direct CO2 emissions fall from 57 MtCO2 in 2019 to 26-33 MtCO2 in 2030 and 1-4 MtCO2 in 2050 across all 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here.
Türkiye's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
57
|
26 to
33
|
18 to
26
|
7 to
14
|
1 to
4
|
2043 to
2049
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-54 to
-42%
|
-68 to
-54%
|
-88 to
-75%
|
-98 to
-93%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
30
|
40 to
43
|
51 to
53
|
66 to
72
|
82 to
88
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
5
|
4 to
6
|
4 to
7
|
4 to
9
|
4 to
9
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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