What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Türkiye
Economy wide
To put the country on a pathway consistent with the 1.5°C warming limit, Türkiye would need to reduce emissions by 41% below 2015 levels by 2030.
Türkiye's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Paris Agreement ratification
Türkiye finally ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2021 but remains unambitious about climate action.
NDC
The country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets out a 21% emissions reduction target below a “business as usual” scenario (BAU) by 2030. This target means allowing for an increase in emissions of 111% above 2015 levels. The NDC is not Paris Agreement compatible, and emission projections to 2030 show that Türkiye will overachieve this very weak target under current policies.1
The Turkish government announced at COP27 that it had updated its NDC, but it has not submitted it to the UNFCCC. Rather than reducing emissions, it will still lead to their increase, and is therefore not 1.5°C compatible.
Net zero target
When ratifying the Paris Agreement in late 2021, Türkiye set a 2053 net zero target which covers all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and all sectors of the economy.
2050 Ambition
To align with a 1.5°C pathway, Türkiye would need to reduce its GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, by at least 80% below 2015 levels by mid-century. Türkiye would need to balance its remaining emissions to a level of around 69 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 through carbon dioxide removal approaches, particularly land sinks.
Net zero GHG
Türkiye could reach net zero GHG emissions before 2050 if the country was to maintain its land sink capacity the current level.23
Sectors
Power
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Türkiye has a target for renewable energy to reach a 38.8% share of total electricity generation by 2023. This target was surpassed in 2019, but the government has not set further renewable energy goals.4
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A 1.5°C compatible trajectory would require an 84–86% renewables share in power generation by 2030.
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The Turkish government plans to expand coal power generation. This is not in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, which requires a phase-out of coal by around 2030.
Buildings
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Türkiye would need to increase electrification of the buildings sector to 55–60% by 2030 and 84–89% by 2050 to be 1.5°C compatible.
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Türkiye’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan foresees implementation of standards, according to which newly constructed buildings would need to, at a minimum, meet the requirements of an Energy Performance Certificate “B”.
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Türkiye has also set short-term targets for increasing energy efficiency of the existing building stock, but they only apply to public buildings. Extending the scope of these goals to privately owned buildings would help bring the sector closer to a 1.5°C compatible trajectory.
Industry
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Türkiye’s industrial sector has seen a dramatic increase in the use of fossil gas in its energy mix in the past 15 years, from a 4% to 30% share. To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the sector should instead increase electrification, to 36–54% by 2030 and to 67–79% by 2050.
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The country’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan includes a target to reduce the sector’s energy intensity by 10% compared to the year 2000 by 2023. This target is to be reached through low interest loans for energy efficiency projects and increasing cogeneration capabilities at sites with heat requirement exceeding 20 MW. Without concrete electrification targets in the industry sector, however, Türkiye risks being locked in a carbon intensive pathway.
Transport
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Türkiye has in place targets to encourage the modal shift from road to rail in both passenger and freight transport, backed with investments worth about USD 200 million.
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The Turkish government has no concrete electrification targets for the transport sector nor sufficient incentives in place to promote electric vehicles (EVs). As a result, the uptake of EVs has so far been slow.
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To align with 1.5°C pathways, Türkiye would need to halve the transport sector’s CO₂ emissions by 2030 and bring them close to zero by 2050. These targets could be achieved through increasing the sector’s electrification from its 2019 level of 0% to 36–49% by 2050.