Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Türkiye has not committed to reducing its emissions in the medium term. Instead, the government projects steeply rising emissions until 2030, even under its planned policies scenario.¹ This is also reflected in its NDC which includes a target of 21% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030 to a level of 999 MtCO₂e. This emissions level corresponds to an increase in emissions of 111% above 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF). Our analysis shows that Türkiye would need to reduce emissions by 41% below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF) by 2030 to be on a 1.5°C trajectory.

While 1.5°C compatible scenarios show Türkiye’s emissions peaking by 2020, there is no indication of an emissions peak under the current 2030 target or associated government emissions projections. The updated NDC announced at COP 27, but still not submitted to the UNFCCC, stipulates a 41% emissions reduction by 2030 using the same BAU scenario. Rather than reducing emissions, the announced NDC allows for their increase, albeit to lower levels, with emissions expected to peak in 2038. Even the updated NDC is therefore not 1.5°C compatible.²

Türkiye's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Türkiye’s emissions, especially in the energy sector, need to decrease steeply in the 2020s and the early 2030s. By mid-century, Türkiye’s GHG emissions should not be higher than 8–92 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF). This level corresponds to a reduction of around 80–98% below 2015 levels.

To reach net zero by 2050, the remaining emissions – mostly from the agriculture and waste sectors – would have to be fully compensated by land sinks, the capacity of which would have to remain at their current level, or the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies.³^,⁴

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Türkiye’s primary energy demand mix is characterised by a high share of fossil fuels (more than 88% in 2017). To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the share of fossil fuels would need to be roughly halved by 2030 (from around 5.4 EJ/yr to around 1.9–3.4 EJ/yr) and reduced sixfold by 2050.

The demand for oil, mainly for the transport sector would need to decline by half from its 2017 level by 2030. A shift toward zero carbon modes of transport, including through government support for electric vehicles could help to achieve the necessary emission reductions in the transport sector.

Renewable energy generation as a share of total primary energy would need to more than double by 2030 from its 2017 level of 12%. By 2050, over 90% of Türkiye’s primary energy demand would need to come from renewable energy sources.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Türkiye. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	473	506	263 242 to 305	123 84 to 175	69 8 to 92
Relative to reference year in %			-44% -49 to -36%	-74% -82 to -63%	-85% -98 to -80%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	378	396	231 172 to 259	88 25 to 136	5 -19 to 57	2055 2046 to 2068
Relative to reference year in %			-39% -54 to -32%	-77% -94 to -64%	-99% -105 to -85%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Turkey’s Fourth Biennial Report. 2019. ↩
Kurum, M. Türkiye - High-level Segment Statement COP 27. UNFCCC. 2022. Preprint at https://unfccc-events.azureedge.net/COP27_90500/agenda ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
LULUCF projections by 2030 are based on a ten-year average of the latest available historical LULUCF emissions from Türkiye assessed by the Climate Action Tracker. ↩

What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Türkiye's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Türkiye's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Türkiye's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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