What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Türkiye’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (excl. LULUCF) have been steadily rising for the past three decades, increasing to 138% above 1990 levels in 2018.1 While all sectors of the economy have registered significant emissions growth, the majority of this increase has come from the energy sector (81%). The power sector registered the largest single increase, more than tripling over this period, accounting for 30% of the country’s national carbon footprint in 2018. Emissions from the agriculture sector, which were stable between 1990–2010, have since increased by 44% (2010–2019).
The forestry and land use sector, on the other hand, has become a considerably larger sink over time, removing almost 95 MtCO₂e in 2018, compared to 56 MtC₂e in 1990. Türkiye’s National Inventory Report 2020 explains this increase driven by an “increased productivity of the forests”.
Türkiye's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy system
Türkiye’s rising energy sector emissions are primarily due to newly constructed coal-fired power stations. While the government has planned to further increase coal capacity by 44% between 2019 and 2023 in its energy strategy, it has a current coal pipeline of 10 GW.2 However, financing for such projects is becoming increasingly difficult, meaning some of this capacity may not eventuate.3
The share of renewable energy generation has increased rapidly in recent years, hitting 44% in 2019, thereby exceeding the government’s 2023 target of 38.8%.4 This growth reflects the significant potential in Türkiye especially for wind and solar energy and decreasing costs of these technologies. Renewable energy sources have replaced fossil gas in power generation and therefore also contributed to achieving the government’s goal to secure greater energy independence. However, sustaining the promising growth in renewables deployment will require strong policy support.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
- 21% below BAU by 2030 incl. LULUCF.
- 111% above 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.
- 96% above 2015 levels including LULUCF.
Market mechanisms
- “Türkiye aims to use carbon credits from international market mechanisms to achieve its 2030 mitigation target in accordance with relevant rules and standards.”
Long-term target
- Net zero GHG emissions by 2053.
Sectoral targets
Power
- 29.6 GW wind energy by 2035.5
- 52.9 GW solar energy by 2035.6
- 35.1 GW hydropower by 2035.7
- 5.1 GW geothermal energy by 2035.8
- 54.8% electricity from renewable sources by 2035.9
Buildings
- Reducing energy consumption of public buildings by 15% by 2023.
Industry
- Reducing energy intensity by 10% by 2023.
Transport
- Increasing the share of rail in passenger transport to 6% by 2053.
- Increasing the share of rail in freight transport to 22% by 2053.