What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Viet Nam
Aligning 2030 ambition with 1.5°C would see emissions growth reverse
To be 1.5°C compatible, Viet Nam would need to reverse its domestic emissions trajectory, which expects emissions to increase by up to 109% above 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF. 1.5°C compatible pathways would require emissions to fall to 2% above 2015 levels by 2030.
Viet Nam's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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A rapid renewables rollout is critical for the power sector
Aligning Viet Nam’s power sector with 1.5°C compatible pathways will require a rapid rollout of clean energy sources. Renewable energy would need to constitute around 90-95% of the power generation mix by 2030, up from 31% in 2019 (mostly hydropower). Viet Nam possesses remarkable potential in solar and wind energy, though harnessing this potential will require developing grid infrastructure.
Expanding electricity crucial to decarbonising industry
Decarbonising the energy-intensive industry sector is critical to putting Viet Nam on a path to net zero. Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, electricity, hydrogen, and biomass should meet at least three-fourths of energy needed by industry by 2030, rising to 95-99% by 2050.
Greening the transport sector
The Deep Electrification pathway shows the electrification of transport could reach 17% by 2030, 50% by 2040, and 72% by 2050. Despite transport energy demand rising by 37% between 2019 and 2050, emissions could be reduced by 59% if this pathway is followed. Viet Nam's government has recently implemented policies aimed at advancing the transport sector’s decarbonisation, with the objective of using only electricity and green energies for transportation by 2050. Viet Nam's abundant domestic metal resources position the country as a strong competitor in the electric vehicle supply chain.