What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Viet Nam
Aligning 2035 ambition with 1.5°C would see emissions growth reverse
To be 1.5°C compatible, Viet Nam would need to reverse its domestic emissions trajectory, which is expected to increase by at least 104% above 2015 levels by 2035, excluding LULUCF. 1.5°C compatible pathways would require emissions to decrease by at least 14% below 2015 levels by 2035, excluding LULUCF.
Viet Nam's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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A rapid renewables rollout is critical for the power sector
Aligning Viet Nam’s power sector with 1.5°C compatible pathways will require a rapid rollout of clean energy sources. Renewable energy would need to constitute 90-95% of the power generation mix by 2030 and exceed 99% by 2040, up from almost 50% in 2022.
Fossil gas is not a transition fuel
Viet Nam lacks a fossil gas phase out plan and instead intends to increase its share of gas in the power mix to accompany its gradual reduction of coal, a strategy inconsistent with 1.5°C compatible pathways. Coal should be phased out from the power system around 2030 and gas by 2035-2040.
Expanding electricity, hydrogen and biomass critical to decarbonising industry
Decarbonising the energy-intensive industry sector is critical to putting Viet Nam on a path to net zero. Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, electricity, hydrogen, and biomass should meet at least two-thirds of industry energy needs by 2030, rising to 95% by 2050.