What is Viet Nam's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
In 2022, the industry sector accounted for 36% of Viet Nam’s total emissions (excluding LULUCF), due to industrial process emissions of 77 MtCO2e and energy-related emissions of 90 MtCO2.1,2 Emissions from industrial processes increased by 91% between 2015 and 2022, driven by Viet Nam’s rapid industrialisation and the growth of the cement, chemical and steel industries.3 These emissions would need to decrease rapidly to align the sector with 1.5°C.
Viet Nam's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Fossil fuels made up 58% of the industry energy mix, with coal alone representing 50%.4 Under all 1.5°C compatible pathways, electricity, hydrogen, and biomass would meet around three-fourths or more of industry’s energy needs by 2030 and 95% by 2050. Across pathways, the industry energy mix is decarbonised by 2042 at the latest. In the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, coal’s contribution to the industry sector’s energy mix would drop to 18% by 2030, and process emissions would decline by 20% below their 2022 levels.
In the Deep Electrification pathway – centred on the proliferation of renewables and energy efficiency and with less use of biomass and biogas – the percentage of coal would decrease to 6% by 2030, driving process emissions 20% below their 2022 levels. In such a trajectory, coal would be phased out of the energy mix by 2035 and fossil gas by 2040.
Viet Nam has opportunities to decarbonise its fast-growing industry sector. A fossil fuel phase out and improvements in energy efficiency, as identified in its NDC as a lever of decarbonisation, would ensure alignment with 1.5°C compatible pathways.5 A national roadmap for heavy industry decarbonisation could contribute to this goal, while providing certainty for stakeholders.6
Viet Nam's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Viet Nam's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Viet Nam
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
95
|
12 to
31
|
6 to
9
|
3 to
8
|
1 to
6
|
2035 to
2042
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-87 to
-67%
|
-94 to
-91%
|
-97 to
-92%
|
-99 to
-94%
|
| Indicator |
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
42 to
51
|
48 to
58
|
45 to
64
|
57 to
82
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
74 to
86
|
90 to
93
|
93 to
97
|
95 to
99
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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