What is Romania's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Romania
Economy wide
To be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit, Romania’s GHG emissions need to be 58-66% below 2005 levels by 2030. Romania’s 2030 emissions reduction target, estimated as reflecting a reduction in total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) of 37% below 1990 levels, or 7% above 2005 levels, is not in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long-term temperature goal.
Romania's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 Ambition
The EU Commission has criticised Romania’s lack of ambition in meeting their 2030 targets across a range of areas, including improving energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix.1
Long-term strategy
To date, Romania has not articulated a long-term or net zero strategy.
2050 Ambition
To be 1.5°C compatible, Romania would need to reach emissions reductions of at least 94% below 1990 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF).
Sectors
Power
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To be 1.5°C compatible, the share of renewable energy in the power sector would need to be 88-91% by 2030. This would require a considerable upscaling of ambition from its current 2030 target of 30.7%.
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For Romania to decarbonise its power sector, coal needs to be phased out by 2029 and fossil gas phase-out should occur between 2035 and 2040. Currently, Romania has a 2030 phase-out date for coal, but intends to maintain its level of fossil gas power generation to 2030.2
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The emissions intensity of electricity in Romania would need to decrease from around 310 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 20-40 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, with full decarbonisation occurring between 2035 and 2039.
Buildings
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To be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, direct emissions from the building sector need to fall from their 2019 level of 9 MtCO₂e to reach 4-6 MtCO₂e by 2030, and zero between 2034-2045.
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This will be driven by electrification of appliances currently using fossil fuels, among other measures.
Industry
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Energy-related CO₂ emissions in Romania’s industry sector were 16 MtCO₂ in 2019, and to be to 1.5°C compatible would need to fall to 4-9 MtCO₂ by 2030.
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The Romanian Government has indicated it will finance the use of hydrogen to reduce emissions in the industry sector.
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Improving energy efficiency will be key to reducing emissions from industrial processes. Although the government promoted the circular economy, concrete action is lacking.
Transport
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Despite transport emissions growing faster than any other sector in Romania, the government has no transport emissions reduction target in place.
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In 2019, the share of electricity in transport sector final demand was roughly 1%, meaning that any efforts to decarbonise the sector will involve greatly increasing this share.
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Although the government intends to increase the share of renewables in the transport sector to 14.2% by 2030, Romania currently ranks in the bottom five countries in the EU regarding EV charging points per 100 km.