Economy wide
To be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit, Romania’s GHG emissions need to be 58-66% below 2005 levels by 2030. Romania’s 2030 emissions reduction target, estimated as reflecting a reduction in total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) of 37% below 1990 levels, or 7% above 2005 levels, is not in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long-term temperature goal.
Romaniaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
2030 Ambition
The EU Commission has criticised Romania’s lack of ambition in meeting their 2030 targets across a range of areas, including improving energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix.1
1 European Commission. Assessment of the final national energy and climate plan of Romania. 2020.
2 Government of Romania. National Energy and Climate Plan – Romania. 2020.
3 European Environment Agency. EEA greenhouse gases – data viewer. 2021.
4 International Energy Agency. IEA world energy balances, 2020. 2020.
5 European Environment Agency. Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption. 2021.
6 European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Making the transition to zero-emission mobility: 2021 progress report. 2021.
7 Bankwatch Network. The Romanian renewable energy sector: a potential still untapped. 2020.
8 Romanian Government. National long-term renovation strategy. 2020.
9 Ministry of Public Works Development and Administration. Romanian national long-term renovation strategy: key elements. 2020.
10 Petre, G. Romania might become one of Europe’s biggest hydrogen hubs: investments of over 1,6 bn euros are in early stages of development. CEEnergy News. 2021.
11 Global Gas Plant Tracker, last updated August 2022, by Global Energy Monitor can be found here.
Long-term strategy
To date, Romania has not articulated a long-term or net zero strategy.
2050 Ambition
To be 1.5°C compatible, Romania would need to reach emissions reductions of at least 94% below 1990 levels by 2050 (excl. LULUCF).
Sectors
Power
- To be 1.5°C compatible, the share of renewable energy in the power sector would need to be 88-91% by 2030. This would require a considerable upscaling of ambition from its current 2030 target of 30.7%.
- For Romania to decarbonise its power sector, coal needs to be phased out by 2029 and fossil gas phase-out should occur between 2035 and 2040. Currently, Romania has a 2030 phase-out date for coal, but intends to maintain its level of fossil gas power generation to 2030.2
- The emissions intensity of electricity in Romania would need to decrease from around 310 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 20-40 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, with full decarbonisation occurring between 2035 and 2039.
Buildings
- To be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, direct emissions from the building sector need to fall from their 2019 level of 9 MtCO₂e to reach 4-6 MtCO₂e by 2030, and zero between 2034-2045.
- This will be driven by electrification of appliances currently using fossil fuels, among other measures.
Industry
- Energy-related CO₂ emissions in Romania’s industry sector were 16 MtCO₂ in 2019, and to be to 1.5°C compatible would need to fall to 4-9 MtCO₂ by 2030.
- The Romanian Government has indicated it will finance the use of hydrogen to reduce emissions in the industry sector.
- Improving energy efficiency will be key to reducing emissions from industrial processes. Although the government promoted the circular economy, concrete action is lacking.
Transport
- Despite transport emissions growing faster than any other sector in Romania, the government has no transport emissions reduction target in place.
- In 2019, the share of electricity in transport sector final demand was roughly 1%, meaning that any efforts to decarbonise the sector will involve greatly increasing this share.
- Although the government intends to increase the share of renewables in the transport sector to 14.2% by 2030, Romania currently ranks in the bottom five countries in the EU regarding EV charging points per 100 km.