What is Italy's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Italy
Economy wide
Unlike other large European countries (Germany, France, the UK and Spain), Italy does not have a national economy-wide emissions reduction target in addition to its contribution to the EU target. In March 2022, Italy’s Plan for the Ecological Transition (PITE) was adopted, which includes a non-binding emissions reduction goal by 2030 of 51% below the 1990 levels.1
Italy's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 Ambition
By synthesising the sectoral targets found in Italy’s National Energy and Climate Plan from 2019 (NECP), a target of 37% below 2005 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF) can be derived, corresponding to a 30% emissions reduction by 2030 below 1990 levels. The 2021 Economic and Finance Document from the Finance Ministry shows an updated projection, based mainly on updated drivers (GDP and population), leading to higher reduction cuts than the NECP target, equivalent to a 49% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030, and a 42% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2030.2
Both the current NECP target and the goal declared in PITE appear to be incompatible with Paris Agreement 1.5°C pathways. To align with a 1.5°C pathway, Italy needs to reduce its emissions by 61-71% below 1990 levels, to a level of 149-201 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF.
Fair share
A full fair share contribution will require Italy to provide substantial support to other countries to reduce emissions beyond its domestic emissions.
Long-term strategy
As of September 2022, Italy has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC according to the 2020 deadline of the Paris Agreement and the 2021 G7 commitment to submit it by COP26.3 However, Italy did send a long-term strategy to the EU Commission in 2021.4
2050 Ambition
Under 1.5°C compatible cost-optimal pathways, GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in Italy would be around 33 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, approximately 94% below 1990 levels. Emissions reductions to get there would be driven primarily through the decarbonisation of the energy sector.
Sectors
Power
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As of 2021, natural gas accounted for half of the electricity generation in Italy, while coal and oil together contributed about 14%. Renewable energy, mostly hydropower and solar, constituted the rest of the power mix in 2021.
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To be on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Italy would need to move away from fossil fuels, and increase renewable energy in the power mix, to reach a share of 82-87% by 2030 and 100% by 2040.
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The carbon intensity of the power sector under 1.5°C compatible pathways would be reduced from 260 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 60-70 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 (a 75-76% reduction below 2019 levels).
Buildings
- Buildings is the third-largest emitting sector in the country, with energy consumption in this sector mostly dominated by fossil gas (around 50% in the residential sector and 39% in the service sector).
- 1.5°C compatible pathways show that direct CO₂ emissions should be halved from current levels by 2030 and the buildings sector should be fully decarbonised in the late 2040s. This could be made possible through increasing the electrification rate of the sector, to 48-50% of the sector’s final energy consumption by 2030 from its 2019 level of 28%.
Industry
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The industry sector’s emissions have fallen from 1990 levels as a result of the severe economic slowdown in 2009 following the global financial crisis, that was further exacerbated in 2013 by a recession in the Italian economy. While the industry sector’s emissions have been decreasing in the past decade, the sector is still heavily reliant on natural gas (around 35% of the final energy mix).
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Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of electricity would need to increase and replace natural gas reaching up to 50% of the consumption by 2030.
Transport
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Transport is the biggest emitting sector in Italy. Although emissions have been decreasing in the past decade, the sector’s energy mix is still overwhelmingly dominated by oil.
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Decarbonisation of the sector could be driven by a ramp-up of electrification, which currently accounts for less than 5% of the transport mix, to an upper bound of 57% by 2030, while pathways with lower electrification see a higher deployment of biogas. Depending on the scenario, the electrification of transport could reach up to 75% by 2040. All scenarios foresee a significant drop in transportation energy demand.
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In 2021, Italy ranked 12th in the EU in terms of the percentage of electric passenger cars (EVs) registered, with less than 10% market share (both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV).5 To be compatible with 1.5°C, direct CO₂ emissions from transport should decrease by 51-67% by 2030 compared to 2019. According to ECCO’s estimates, this reduction is equivalent to the purchase of between 13-18 million battery electric car vehicles, about four times the NECP target (4 million) and about three times the PITE target (6 million).