What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Nigeria
Nigeria’s conditional NDC target aligned with 1.5°C pathways
Nigeria’s conditional target from the NDC submitted in 2021, when excluding LULUCF, is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways. These show emission reductions of 52% below to 3% above 2010 levels, or 125-270 MtCO2e/yr by 2030. However, current policies fall short of achieving Nigeria’s unconditional targets. Further international support would be necessary for Nigeria to achieve its conditional target.
Nigeria's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Investing in fossil gas increases risk of stranded assets
The Deep Electrification pathway best captures the rapid cost reductions in wind and solar and the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system. Under this pathway, fossil gas declines from 74% of power generation in 2019 to 29% in 2030. By 2040, fossil gas is almost entirely phased out of the power sector with electricity needs met by renewables instead.
1.5°C pathways reduce reliance on biomass
Nigeria has the largest population in the world without access to electricity, accounting for 40% of the population in 2021. Further, only 17% of the population has access to clean cooking. Across all 1.5°C pathways, Nigeria’s buildings sector transitions away from biomass as it electrifies. In the Net-Zero Commitments pathway, biomass is nearly phased out of the buildings sector by 2050 as the sector reaches over 90% electricity in the energy mix.