What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Nigeria’s 2022 emissions reached 411 MtCO₂e, excluding LULUCF.1 The energy sector accounts for roughly two-thirds of total emissions, at 270 MtCO₂e. Transportation accounts for the largest share of energy emissions, equal to 26% overall emissions excluding LULUCF.2 The fossil fuel industry is also a major driver of emissions in Nigeria and accounts for 21% of total emissions, mostly due to fugitive emissions from oil and gas.
Emissions in Nigeria continue to trend upwards, rising over 35% from 2010 levels by 2022.3 Future projections are expected to follow this trend, rising to 61-71% above 2010 levels by 2030 and to 73-100% above 2010 levels by 2035.4
Nigeria’s flagship climate change policy is the Climate Change Act, which aims to reduce emissions while achieving sustainable growth.5 It establishes a framework to set a net zero target between 2050-2070 and for the adoption of National Climate Change Action Plans in five-year cycles to ensure national emissions are in-line with a carbon budget. In early 2025, President Bola Tinubu launched Nigeria’s National Greenhouse Gases Emission Monitoring Programme to support implementation and monitoring of Nigeria’s emissions reduction targets and climate policies.6
Nigeria's 2022 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Biofuels and waste provided over 40% of Nigeria’s total energy supply in 2022, followed by oil at 32%.7 Nigeria’s energy sector faces severe challenges at nearly all levels, with about 40% of the population lacking access to electricity – the largest population without electricity access in the world.8
A fleet of aged fossil gas plants generated 75% of Nigeria’s electricity in 2022, with the other 25% covered by hydro and negligible amounts of solar PV.9 While measures have been launched to improve maintenance and grid stability, grid collapses and blackouts remain common. Nigeria has one of the least reliable energy supplies in Africa, with frequent and prolonged blackouts forcing reliance on expensive oil-fuelled backup generators.10 Households and businesses are estimated to spend nearly USD 22 bn annually on fuel for backup generators, or about 5% of GDP.11
Nigeria’s 2022 Energy Transition Plan aims to decarbonise the energy sector in alignment with the stated 2060 net zero target.12 The plan envisions a ramp up of fossil gas use in the short term, increasing the risk of stranded assets and placing Nigeria’s energy system on a carbon-intensive path.
Targets and commitments
Unconditional target in 2021 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- 20% below business as usual by 2030 (including LULUCF)13
When excluding LULUCF, Nigeria’s target translates to:
- 31% to 37% above 2010 levels by 2030 or 391 to 409 MtCO2e14
Conditional target in 2021 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- 47% below business as usual by 2030 (including LULUCF)15
When excluding LULUCF, Nigeria’s target translates to:
- 3% above to 13% below 2010 levels by 2030 or 259 to 308 MtCO2e16
Long-term target
As formulated by the country: