What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Nigeria’s emissions reached 299 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF in 2019.1 Emissions have generally increased from 2009-2021 and are projected to reach about 350-400 MtCO2e/yr by 2030.2 The energy sector accounted for the majority of emissions at 67%.3 Half of Nigeria’s energy-related emissions are emitted by fossil fuel industries, mostly due to fugitive emissions from oil and gas.4,5 Transport and buildings are the next largest emitting energy sectors.
Agriculture is the second highest emitting sector after energy (20%).6 There is significant uncertainty around LULUCF emission estimates in Nigeria, with recent estimates ranging from less than 87 MtCO2e/yr to about 300 MtCO2e/yr.7,8
In 2021, Nigeria’s government passed the Climate Change Act which aims to reduce emissions while achieving sustainable growth.9 The Act provides the framework to set a net zero target between 2050 and 2070 and for the adoption of National Climate Change Action Plans in five-year cycles consistent with a carbon budget set by the federal ministries. However, the government has so far missed several deadlines set by the Act and has not set the target year to achieve net zero under the framework as of May 2024.
Nigeria's 2019 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
-
Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
-
Energy overview and main policy gaps
Nigeria’s energy sector faces multiple challenges. It has the largest population in the world without access to electricity, accounting for 40% of the population in 2021.10 Further, only 17% of the population has access to clean cooking. A large portion of the population relies on biomass for cooking – supplying to 75% of Nigeria’s primary energy in 2019.11,12
Poor reliability of the power grid has also been an ongoing issue, with frequent and prolonged blackouts.13 The grid mostly relies on a fleet of aging natural gas plants, which generated 75% of power in 2019.14 Renewables provided the remainder, largely supplied by hydropower with negligible contributions from solar.15,16 Recently, some measures such as enhanced maintenance regimes and operational schemes have improved grid stability;17 however, much of the population still relies on expensive and GHG-intensive back-up diesel generators.18
In 2022, Nigeria adopted its Energy Transition Plan which aims to decarbonise the energy sector in line with Nigeria’s stated 2060 net zero target.19 However, the plan envisions a ramp up of gas use in the short term which increases the risk of stranded assets and puts the energy system on a carbon-intensive path.
Economy-Wide Targets
Unconditional NDC Target:
-
As expressed by the country: 20% below business-as-usual by 2030 (including LULUCF)20
-
When excluding LULUCF, Nigeria’s unconditional target translates to: 17-27% above 2010 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF)21
Conditional NDC Target:
-
As expressed by the country: 47% below business-as-usual by 2030 (including LULUCF)22
-
When excluding LULUCF, Nigeria’s conditional target translates to: 23% below to 1% above 2010 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF)23
Sector Coverage:
- Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF
Long-term target:
- As formulated by the country: Nigeria has adopted the framework to set a net zero emissions target between 2050 and 2070 through the Climate Change Act, though has not yet set the target under the framework24