What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Nigeria’s transport sector is the second largest emitting energy sector after its fossil fuel industry.1,2 Transport is also a rapidly growing sector, with energy consumption and CO2 emissions doubling between 2010 and 2019.3,4 Oil supplied 100% of the transport sector’s energy mix in 2019.5
Nigeria's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all pathways, total transport energy consumption continues increasing out to 2050. However, oil consumption peaks between 2030 and 2045 and declines after.
In the Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system, oil falls to three-quarters of the transport energy mix by 2040 and to less than one-third by 2050. The transition is largely driven by increased electrification, which reaches 63% of the mix by 2050.
For the transport sector, Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan focuses on passenger transport which accounts for the majority of emissions.6 It focuses on increasing biofuel blending in the short-term with electric vehicles only considered viable post-2030.
Nigeria's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
59
|
82 to
90
|
84 to
104
|
77 to
100
|
38 to
87
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
39 to
53%
|
42 to
76%
|
31 to
69%
|
-36 to
47%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
8
|
3 to
19
|
15 to
63
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
6
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
3 to
3
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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