What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Across the Net-Zero Commitments and Deep Electrification pathways, total transport energy consumption continues increasing out to 2050. The Minimal CDR Reliance pathwaysees total transport energy consumption plateau between 2040-2050, with CO₂ emissions declining faster than in other pathways during that time. However, in all pathways, oil consumption peaks between 2030 and 2045 and declines thereafter.

In the Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system, oil falls to three-quarters of the transport energy mix by 2040 and to less than one-third by 2050. The transition is largely driven by increased electrification, which reaches 63% of the mix by 2050.

Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan focuses on passenger transport which accounts for the majority of transport sector emissions.⁶6 It focuses on increasing biofuel blending in the short term with electric vehicles only considered viable post-2030. 1.5ºC compatible pathways analysed here show a small share of electricity in the transportation energy mix in 2030, with more rapid growth coming between 2030-2050. This decade is important to set the stage for the rapid scale-up seen in the medium term, which Nigeria can support through the development of regulation favourable to EV development and build-out of ancillary infrastructure including transmission infrastructure and charging stations.