What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Nigeria’s 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets emissions reductions of 47% below business-as-usual by 2030 – including LULUCF and conditional on international support.1 Excluding LULUCF, this target is equivalent to emissions of 23% below to 1% above 2010 levels, or 201–264 MtCO2e/yr by 2030.2 The wide range of emissions in 2030 is due to the high level of uncertainty in LULUCF estimates.
Nigeria’s conditional target is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which show emissions reductions of 52% below to 3% above 2010 levels excluding LULUCF, or 125-270 MtCO2e/yr by 2030.
In 2021, Nigeria put forward an Energy Transition Plan which it estimates will require an initial support package of 10 billion USD to kickstart. Due to uncertainty in funding and implementation, the plan is not included in current policy projections. If support is received and the Plan implemented, Nigeria’s emissions are projected to come much closer to achieving its conditional target.3 Further international support could allow Nigeria to avoid the Plan’s short-term ramp up of gas (see power sector section) and achieve the conditional target.
Nigeria's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Nigeria’s 2021 Climate Change Act includes the framework to set a net zero target between 2050 and 2070.4 While no such target has been formalised through the Act as of May 2024, the government has repeatedly expressed a commitment to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2060. At COP26, former President Buhari first committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2060, which was restated in Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan.5,6 Nigeria’s Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy 2060, launched at COP28, reportedly includes the same target; however, the strategy has not been made publicly available.7
By 2050, Nigeria’s emissions (excluding LULUCF) would need to decrease to 36-66% below 2010 levels, reaching 89-166 MtCO2e/yr under 1.5°C compatible pathways. Due to high uncertainty in Nigeria’s land use emissions and the nature of Nigeria’s net zero ambition described above, it is difficult to assess whether Nigeria’s long-term targets are 1.5°C compatible.
Nigeria's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Nigeria. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
271
|
306
|
125 to
270
|
101 to
258
|
90 to
227
|
89 to
166
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-54 to
-0%
|
-63 to
-5%
|
-67 to
-16%
|
-67 to
-39%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
74
|
105
|
31 to
56
|
18 to
49
|
-3 to
51
|
-25 to
22
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-58 to
-24%
|
-76 to
-34%
|
-104 to
-31%
|
-134 to
-70%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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