What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Nigeria’s 2021 NDC targets emissions reductions of 47% below business-as-usual by 2030, including LULUCF and conditional on international support.1 For comparability to our 1.5°C pathways, we assess this target as 3% above to 13% below 2010 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).2 Nigeria’s conditional 2021 NDC target is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, and sits squarely in this 1.5°C compatible emission range, which indicates emissions could reach at most 26% above 2010 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).
Nigeria has not yet submitted a new NDC with emissions reduction targets for 2035. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Nigeria’s 2035 emissions reduction target would need to be equivalent to 18% above 2010 levels to be compatible with the Paris Agreement.
Nigeria's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
In line with the framework established in the 2021 Climate Change Act, Nigeria has established a 2060 net zero target, first announced by former President Buhari at COP26.3 This commitment was further supported by President Bola Tinubu following his 2023 confirmation.4 The 2060 target was formalised in the submission of Nigeria’s Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy in 2024.5
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Nigeria’s 2050 emissions would need to decrease to at least 33% below 2010 levels, or 200 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF). High uncertainty around Nigeria’s land use emissions leads to challenges assessing the 1.5°C compatibility of Nigeria’s 2060 net zero target, which is further compounded by lack of clarity around expected land sector contributions to the target.
Nigeria's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Nigeria. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2010
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
298
|
398
|
165 to
375
|
126 to
353
|
108 to
309
|
107 to
200
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-45 to
26%
|
-58 to
18%
|
-64 to
4%
|
-64 to
-33%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
84
|
174
|
44 to
75
|
25 to
62
|
-5 to
60
|
-35 to
26
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-48 to
-11%
|
-70 to
-26%
|
-106 to
-29%
|
-142 to
-69%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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