What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Nigeria
Ambition Gap
Our analysis shows that to be 1.5°C compatible, Nigeria would need to reduce emissions by 4–35% below 2015 levels, to 177–261 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excl. LULUCF. Nigeria’s conditional NDC is currently largely within this range. However, depending on how the government will use the LULUCF sector, the sector’s emissions could potentially account for 25–50% of the country’s total emissions. The LULUCF sector can therefore have a big impact on assessing whether or not Nigeria is on a 1.5°C compatible emissions reduction pathway.
Nigeria's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Nigeria submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in July 2021.1 It reiterates the country’s previous unconditional climate target from 2017 of 20% below business-as-usual (BAU) by 2030 (including LULUCF) and increases the target that is conditional on adequate international support from 45% to 47% below BAU level by 2030. The updated NDC provides a significantly revised 2030 BAU projection and historical emissions compared to the 2017 NDC.
Taking into account the revised historical data, Nigeria’s conditional target translates to an emissions level of 201–264 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or 3–26% below 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.2 The wide range reflects the uncertainty around how Nigeria intends to use the land use and forestry sector to meet the climate target.3
Our analysis shows that with adequate international support, Nigeria can reduce its emissions in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways and close the gap between its current emissions level and its fair share level.
Long-term pathway
Nigeria’s Climate Change Act, which was adopted in November 2021, establishes the framework for the government to set a net zero target for between 2050 and 2070.4 Ahead of COP27, President Buhari announced that Nigeria intended to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.
In 2021, Nigeria adopted a Long-Term Vision to 2050 with a goal to reduce the country’s emissions by 50% below the current emissions level (including LULUCF), a target reiterated in the country’s updated NDC. 1.5°C compatible pathways suggest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions of 28–57% below 2015 levels to 115–196 MtCO2e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2050. While there is uncertainty around the level of LULUCF emissions, it is clear that strong efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions will be needed for the country to reach net zero GHG emissions and balance its remaining emissions through the land sector.
The 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here show power sector decarbonisation as key. Through electrification, the power sector will then be a catalyst for the decarbonisation of other sectors. Reducing emissions in the transport and industry sectors will also be important as they both contribute significantly to Nigeria’s total emissions.
Decarbonising the power sector
For Nigeria’s power sector to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the share of renewable energy would need to grow from 22% in 2019 to at least 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2050.
Nigeria’s current target for renewable energy generation in the power sector is 30% by 2030.3 Off-grid renewable energy solutions offer an opportunity to increase renewable energy based electricity while expanding electricity access in rural areas, securing reliability of the grid and reducing transmission and distribution losses. The government’s Energy Transition Plan includes a goal to install 6.3 GW of decentralised renewable energy by 2030.
Phasing out fossil gas in the power sector between 2030 and 2040 would help achieve the required power sector transformation. Nigeria doesn’t currently have any coal in its power mix. The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here also don’t show a future role for coal. Nigeria’s 2018 draft National Energy Policy includes plans to pursue coal-fired generation in the power sector; however, coal is absent from more recent plans, such as the Energy Transition Plan which on the other hand foresees significant gas expansion in the period to 2030.4 Considering the long lifetimes and decreasing competitiveness of coal and gas power plants, such investments come with a significant risk of stranded assets and a lock-in of high-cost, high-emission technologies.
Decarbonising the transport sector
Nigeria’s transport sector is almost entirely reliant on fossil fuels (as of 2019) which are highly subsidised by the government. Substituting fossil fuel subsidies for ones that promote low-carbon alternatives such as taking public transport would be a critical step towards decarbonising the transport sector.
Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, demand is met by biofuels, electricity, and to a lesser extent hydrogen. By 2050, the transport sector’s electrification rate reaches 33-56%.