What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

The energy sector was the largest source of emissions in Nigeria in 2017, responsible for about two thirds of the country’s total emissions, excluding LULUCF. Within the energy sector, the power and transport sectors are responsible for the largest shares of CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions from traditional biomass, Nigeria’s largest source of primary energy, are included in LULUCF emissions and therefore not considered here. Fugitive emissions from the upstream oil and gas industry make up a significant portion of energy sector emissions, though they have slightly decreased since 2000.5 While energy sector emissions have been decreasing, emissions from the agriculture, waste and industry sectors have increased, keeping the overall emissions level relatively constant since 2000.1

There is significant uncertainty around LULUCF emissions estimates in Nigeria. The country’s Third National Communication estimates these as the largest source of emissions (over 300 MtCO₂e), while the interim NDC update reports land use emissions together with agriculture as about one quarter of emissions (approximately 87 MtCO₂e in 2018).2,3

Nigeria's current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system

In 2019, Nigeria supplied 75% of its primary energy with bioenergy, primarily traditional biomass.4 One of the main reasons for the big bioenergy share is low access to electricity. Oil is the second largest source of primary energy in Nigeria, accounting for 15% of the mix in 2019.5 Remaining energy supply comes from gas (9%), renewables (0.4%) and coal (0.02%).

Fossil gas supplies about 77% of electricity generation in Nigeria. The remaining generation comes almost entirely from hydropower.6 Nigeria’s 2015 National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP) includes a target to build over 23 GW of renewable capacity including large hydropower by 2030. However, Nigeria is not on track to meeting this target.

In 2022, Nigeria adopted its Energy Transition Plan as a roadmap to achieving the net zero by 2060 target announced by President Buhari.7 In the period to 2030, the plan relies on fossil gas to expand energy access and meet other development goals. Investing in fossil gas expansion, however, increases the risk of stranded assets and distracts from investing in further renewable energy options.

Nigeria approved its revised National Climate Change Policy in June 2021, outlining mitigation and adaptation objectives.8

Targets and commitments

Unconditional target:

  • 20% below BAU by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
  • 12-22% above 2015 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).9

Conditional target:

  • 47% below BAU by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
  • 3-26% below 2015 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).10

Sector coverage:

  • Agriculture Waste Industry (processes) Energy LULUCF

Market mechanisms:

  • 2021 NDC: “Nigeria is committed to contributing to discussions on international cooperation through Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Discussions are underway for support for the development of a national carbon pricing/market framework that will enable Article 6 outcomes.”

Long-term target

  • Nigeria has adopted a Long-Term Low Emission Vision to 2050 (LTV) to inform the development of its Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS). The LTV includes a target to reduce emissions by 50% below current levels by 2050 and move towards net zero emissions in the second half of the century across all sectors. The LTV 2050 target and net zero ambition are referenced in the 2021 NDC update.
  • Legislation is also moving through the National Assembly that includes a net zero target for between 2050–2070.

Sectoral targets:

Energy

  • Energy efficiency increased by 50% by 2030
    Nigeria Energy Transition Plan
  • Emissions from flaring reduced by 100%
  • Fugitive emissions from oil and gas production reduced by 95% by 2050

Power

  • The share of renewable energy in the power mix increased to 30% by 2030
    Nigeria Energy Transition Plan
  • Universal access to electricity by 2030
  • 6.3 GW decentralised renewable energy capacity installed by 2030
  • Operational grid capacity increased to 42 GW by 2030
  • 197 GW of solar PV installed by 2050
  • All diesel generators replaced by 2050
  • About 250 GW of solar PV installed and 112 GW of storage in place by 2060

Transport

  • 25% of all buses converted to compressed natural gas (CNG)-fuelled vehicles by 2030
  • Euro 4 emissions limits met by all vehicles by 2030
    Nigeria Energy Transition Plan
  • A 10% biofuel blend rate by 2030 and 30% by 2036
  • The distance travelled by passenger cars reduced by 20% through a modal shift to public transport and three-wheelers
  • 13 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the market – 60% of total number of vehicles – by 2050, 100% EVs by 2060
  • 60 million EV charging stations in place by 2050

Buildings

Nigeria Energy Transition Plan

  • 75% of traditional firewood stoves replaced by 2030, 100% by 2060
  • 50% of cookstoves fuelled by liquified petroleum gas by 2030
  • 65% of cookstoves electric or fuelled by biogas by 2050, 100% by 2060

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