Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

In July 2021, Nigeria submitted an updated NDC reiterating the previous unconditional target of 20% emissions reduction below BAU by 2030 included in the country’s 2017 NDC. Furthermore, the government increased the target that is conditional on adequate international support from 45% to 47% below BAU by 2030. The NDC update also significantly revises historical and BAU emissions compared to the 2017 NDC.

Considering these revisions, Nigeria’s conditional NDC translates to a GHG emission level of 201–264 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF) which equals 3–26% below 2015 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).¹

Nigeria’s conditional NDC target is within the 1.5°C compatible range which requires 4% to 35% emissions reductions below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 177–261 MtCO₂e/yr) excluding LULUCF. It is possible that Nigeria’s conditional 2030 target is in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways; however, this depends on the role of LULUCF emissions in meeting the target.

With adequate international support, Nigeria can reduce its emissions in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways and close the gap between its emissions and its fair share level.²

Nigeria's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long-term pathway

Nigeria’s GHG emissions should drop by 50% relative to 2015 levels, excl. LULUCF by mid-century to be in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways. CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF should be reduced to 72% below 2015 levels by 2050.³

Remaining emissions from the agriculture and waste sectors will need to be balanced through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal approaches.

In 2021, Nigeria adopted a Long-Term Low Emission Vision to 2050 (LTV) to inform the development of its Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS).⁴ The LTV includes a target to reduce emissions by 50% below current levels (assumed to be 2021) by 2050 and to move towards net zero emissions in the second half of the century. However, the LTV also foresees expansion of fossil gas infrastructure.⁵ Continued investment in fossil gas comes with a risk of stranded assess and a lock-in of high emissions.

Also in 2021, Nigeria passed the Climate Change Act, which establishes the framework to set a net zero target for between 2050 and 2070.⁶ In the lead-up to COP27, President Buhari announced Nigeria’s intent to achieve net zero emissions by 2060.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Renewable energy provides around 75% of Nigeria’s total primary energy consumption. However, about 99% of the renewable energy share in 2019 came from traditional biomass – the burning of charcoal and firewood – mostly used for cooking. While the renewables share should stay high, the country would benefit from a shift away from biomass to other conventional renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydro. Reducing biomass as a source of energy would reduce deforestation and therefore reduce emissions in the LULUCF sector.

Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways shows a slow increase in renewable energy out to 2050. At this point, the energy system could either secure most of its energy from renewables or – if the share of renewables remains lower – rely on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).⁷ Since deployment of BECCS may be limited by the amount of land sustainably available, putting in place policies that increase the share of renewables would be the safest option. This also requires increasing access to electricity so that electrification of end-use sectors can grow. Increased access to electricity and electrification would reduce the use of traditional biomass and back-up generators.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Nigeria. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	271	299	210 177 to 261	160 146 to 212	135 115 to 196
Relative to reference year in %			-22% -35 to -4%	-41% -46 to -22%	-50% -57 to -28%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	82	104	97 75 to 105	51 22 to 73	23 -2 to 52	2062 2049 to 2070
Relative to reference year in %			19% -8 to 28%	-37% -73 to -11%	-72% -103 to -36%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update
- Download data as CSV

See Climate Action Tracker assessment on Nigeria. ↩
See Climate Action Tracker, forthcoming analysis on Nigeria. ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Akinola, R. Nigeria Moves to Develop Long-Term Low Emissions Plan to Curb Climate Change. (2020). ↩
The Premium Times. Osinbajo urges EU not to stop financing Nigeria’s gas projects. (2021). ↩
Vanguard. Let’s engage more on transition to net zero emissions, Osinbajo tells visiting COP26 President-designate. (2021). ↩
In some of the analysed pathways, the power sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS). ↩

What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Nigeria's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long-term pathway

Nigeria's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Nigeria's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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