What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
1.5°C compatible pathways shows that carbon intensity could decline from 390 gCO₂/kWh in 2017 to 120–160 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This could be achieved through a sharp reduction of fossil fuels in the power sector from 77% in 2017 to zero to 23% by 2030. This would be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass) in the power mix from a share of 23% in 2017 to 77–100% by 2030.
Nigeria’s Electricity Vision 30:30:30 targets a renewable energy share of 30% of the power mix by 2030 and the NREEEP targets an installed capacity share of 20% renewable energy (including large hydro) by 2030.1,2 Nigeria’s 2018 draft revised National Energy Policy also includes plans to revitalise the coal sector.3
Nigeria's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The power sector can be fully decarbonised by 2040. This could be achieved through a rapid uptake of renewable energy in the power sector, reaching 100% already by 2040. Transformation of the power sector would also require the phase out of natural gas before 2050, exiting the power mix between 2030 and 2040.
Nigeria does not have long-term power sector targets or plans to phase out fossil fuels; however, the government is in the process of developing a long-term climate vision for 2050 that includes the power sector.4 Expanding electricity access and securing reliability of supply are additional challenges Nigeria faces in transforming their power sector.
Nigeria's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Nigeria to be on the order of USD 1.3 to 11 billion by 2030 and 1.3 to 25 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Nigeria's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
410
|
0 to
98
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2030 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-100 to
-76%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
78
|
0 to
20
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2030 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
22
|
80 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
78
|
0 to
20
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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