What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Nigeria’s transport sector relies almost entirely on fossil fuels (as of 2019), which are highly subsidised by the government. Substituting fossil fuel subsidies for ones that promote low-carbon alternatives such as taking public transport would be a critical step towards decarbonising the transport sector. Such a process must be managed in a way that ensures a just transition for those who rely on the availability of affordable fuel.
Nigeria's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, fossil fuels are either phased out or their share is drastically reduced by 2050, with demand met by biofuels, electricity, and/or hydrogen. By 2050, the transport sector’s electrification rate reaches 33-56%.
Nigeria has some emissions reduction plans in place for the transport sector. The 2019 National Action Plan to Reduce Short-lived Climate Pollutants includes measures such as removing buses which do not meet vehicle emission standards from the fleet. Nigeria’s updated NDC reiterates some of these measures and builds on targets for increased bus transit. In the Energy Transition Plan, the government includes a short-term target to increase biofuel blend rates by 2036, and a long-term target for 100% of vehicles on the market to be electric Vehicles (EVs) by 2060.
Nigeria's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
56
|
27 to
33
|
19 to
24
|
0 to
12
|
2047 to
2053
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-51 to
-40%
|
-66 to
-56%
|
-100 to
-79%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
5 to
22
|
17 to
41
|
33 to
56
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
9
|
4 to
55
|
10 to
60
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
12
|
31 to
34
|
42 to
42
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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