What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Kenya
A stronger emissions reduction target can help Kenya align with 1.5°C
Kenya’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets emissions of 75% above 2010 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF) conditional on international support. However, a maximum increase of 23% above 2010 levels is required to make Kenya’s NDC 1.5°C compatible. A stronger target is needed to bring Kenya in line with the Paris Agreement.
Kenya's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Coal plans at odds with 100% renewable electricity target
In 2020, 94% of Kenya’s electricity came from a diverse mix of renewables, mainly hydro, geothermal and wind. The government has set a target to reach 100% of generation from renewable energy, in line with 1.5°C pathways. However, coal remains a part of long-term energy planning through the construction of the Lamu and Kitui coal plants, running counter to the government’s renewables target.
Strong policy measures can support electrification of Kenya’s transport sector
In 2019, the transport sector made up 14% of economy-wide emissions, with the energy mix consisting almost exclusively of oil. The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures falling renewables costs, shows the share of electricity rise to 63% in 2050. This can be achieved by electric vehicle subsidies, a rollout of charging infrastructure, and electrification of public transport.