What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Kenya
If implemented, Kenya’s goal to reach 100% renewable energy by 2030 is 1.5°C-aligned
In 2024, 92% of Kenya’s electricity came from a diverse mix of renewables – mainly geothermal, hydro, wind and solar. The government’s target to reach 100% electricity generation from renewable energy by 2030 is in line with 1.5°C pathways. However, to reach this it would have to abandon its contradictory plans to expand nuclear and coal power that can result in stranded assets. However, access to clean cooking options remains low and more progress needs to be made towards universal access to electricity to remain on a 1.5°C pathway. This can be achieved through increased electrification with required investments of between 1.22 – 1.34 billion USD per year by 2030 in renewables.
Kenya's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Strong policy measures can support electrification of Kenya’s transport sector
In 2022, the transport sector made up 57% of energy sector emissions, with the energy mix consisting mainly of oil. The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures falling renewables costs, shows the share of electricity rise to 63% of the transport mix in 2050. This can be achieved by further enhancing electric vehicle subsidies especially for personal cars, increased charging infrastructure, and electrification of public transport.
International climate finance can help Kenya achieve its 1.5°C compatible NDC
Kenya’s NDC target aims to limit emissions equivalent to 27% above 2010 levels by 2030 and 82% above 2010 levels by 2035 (excluding LULUCF) conditional on international support. Limiting emissions by 2030 and 2035 to 30% above 2010 levels is required to make Kenya’s NDC 1.5°C compatible. Achieving the conditional NDC targets, which is equivalent to 27% above 2010 levels by 2030 and, can make Kenya 1.50C compatible. International climate finance is essential to enable Kenya to achieve this target.