What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
In 2019, transport’s direct CO2 emissions were 11 MtCO2, or 14% of economy-wide emissions (excl. LULUCF).1 The transport energy mix consists almost exclusively of oil, with a small number of electric vehicles (EVs) in operation.2 EVs are gaining in popularity, however, with an 8.3% market share of new vehicle sales in Kenya during the 2022-2023 financial year.3 All pathways show a relatively slow transition from fossil fuels during this decade before accelerating as more low-carbon infrastructure comes online.
Kenya's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Deep Electrification pathway shows by far the strongest electrification rate in the Kenyan transport sector. This pathway factors in falling electricity prices combined with a rollout of charging infrastructure and EV subsidies. As a result, the share of electricity rises to around 63% in 2050 and the share of oil falls from close to 100% today to 32% in 2050.
The Deep Electrification pathway also displays the lowest energy demand of the assessed pathways for transport. For instance, emphasising a shift to efficient, electrified public transport such as light rail transit can meet increasing transport needs while reducing energy demand.4 Incentives such as the approved special tariffs for the charging of electric vehicles (by the Energy & Petroleum Regulatory Authority) can contribute to increasing the electrification rates of the transport sector.5
The Kenyan power grid is ready for a rollout of EV infrastructure,6 and the clean transport sector carries domestic job opportunities for Kenyan workers, particularly regarding electric two-wheelers.7 Strong policy interventions such as EV subsidies8 can help Kenya become a regional leader in clean transport.9
Kenya's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kenya
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
11
|
12 to
14
|
13 to
16
|
11 to
15
|
5 to
12
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
9 to
27%
|
18 to
45%
|
0 to
36%
|
-55 to
9%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
8
|
3 to
19
|
15 to
63
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
6
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
3 to
3
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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