What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Kenya’s 2020 conditional NDC aims to cut emissions by 32% below a business-as-usual scenario (equivalent to 82 MtCO2e).1 79% of these mitigation costs are conditional on international support. Kenya’s unconditional target, which is likely to be achieved with current policies, equates to 113 MtCO2e by 2030, or 74% above 2010 levels (excluding LULUCF).
Assessed 1.5°C pathways show that Kenya’s targets need to be at most 84 MtCO2e by 2030 (27% above 2010 levels), excluding LULUCF – with a similar target for 2035 (29% above 2010 levels or 84 MtCO2e ). Kenya’s 2030 conditional target (excluding LULUCF) is within the 1.5°C compatible range, however the 2035 conditional target presents a gap of at least 34 MtCO2e.
To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, emissions including LULUCF would need to be at most 113 MtCO2e 2% below 2010 levels by 2030 and 105 MtCO2e or 9% below 2010 levels by 2035. However, Kenya’s 2030 conditional target including LULUCF (the equivalent of 133 MtCO2e) exceeds this. To stay within a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Kenya would need to implement measures in the LULUCF sector such as reducing deforestation and increasing reforestation.
Achieving Kenya’s 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway will require provision of international support to the country.
Kenya's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
Kenya is in the process of finalising and submitting its Long Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) which will provide details for its net zero target.2
As the government aims to turn the LULUCF sector into a carbon sink of 41 MtCO2, Kenya’s 2050 target would lead to emissions levels of around 62-89 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF.3 The lower bound of Kenya’s 2050 target is therefore just about compatible with holding warming to 1.5°C, and if Kenya were to achieve only the upper bound of its target, it would fail to be 1.5°C compatible. A stronger target supported by international finance can enable Kenya to align with the Paris Agreement’s goals.
Kenya's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Kenya. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2010
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
65
|
99
|
42 to
84
|
35 to
84
|
30 to
80
|
24 to
69
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-35 to
29%
|
-46 to
29%
|
-54 to
23%
|
-63 to
6%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
12
|
22
|
6 to
10
|
3 to
8
|
-1 to
7
|
-4 to
3
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-50 to
-17%
|
-75 to
-33%
|
-108 to
-42%
|
-133 to
-75%
|
||
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
115
|
70 to
110
|
54 to
102
|
46 to
92
|
33 to
68
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-39 to
-4%
|
-53 to
-11%
|
-60 to
-20%
|
-71 to
-41%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
62
|
28 to
25
|
19 to
18
|
16 to
12
|
10 to
-1
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-55 to
-60%
|
-69 to
-71%
|
-74 to
-81%
|
-84 to
-102%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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