What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
Kenya’s NDC aims to cut emissions by 32% below a business-as-usual scenario, with 79% of the mitigation costs conditional on international support.1 Kenya’s conditional target, which is likely to be achieved with current policies, equates to 108 MtCO2e by 2030, or 75% above 2010 levels (excl. LULUCF). However, 1.5°C pathways require Kenya’s 2030 emissions to be 23% above 2010 levels, or 76 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF. Achieving Kenya’s 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway will require international support to be provided to the country.
Kenya's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
In its Long Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) 2022-2050, Kenya states that it intends to move ‘towards net zero emissions’ by 2050.2 The phrasing of the target is relevant, as Kenya aims to reduce emissions to 21-48 MtCO2e by 2050 (including LULUCF), rather than achieve full carbon neutrality.
As the government aims to turn the LULUCF sector into a carbon sink of 41 MtCO2, Kenya’s 2050 target would lead to emissions levels of around 62-89 MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF.3 This would bring the country back to its 2010 emissions levels for the lower end and up to 44% above 2010 levels for the higher end by 2050 when excluding LULUCF.
To be in line with 1.5°C, Kenya’s 2050 emissions would need to be 22-67 MtCO2e (excl. LULUCF), or 65% below to 8% above 2010 levels. The lower bound of Kenya’s 2050 target is therefore just about compatible with holding warming to 1.5°C, and if Kenya were to achieve only the upper bound of its target, it would fail to be 1.5°C compatible. A stronger target supported by international finance can guarantee Kenya meets its Paris Agreement obligations.
Kenya's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Kenya. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2010
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
62
|
82
|
39 to
76
|
33 to
77
|
28 to
74
|
22 to
67
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-37 to
23%
|
-47 to
24%
|
-55 to
19%
|
-65 to
8%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
12
|
15
|
5 to
9
|
3 to
8
|
0 to
8
|
-4 to
3
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-58 to
-25%
|
-75 to
-33%
|
-100 to
-33%
|
-133 to
-75%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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